2026-2-1
I am too lazy to switch the time, let's just watch for 15 minutes. The recent pullback was at the lower edge of the box from yesterday's live broadcast. I placed a market order at 77263 and will observe for a while.
Currently, it is still a bearish trend. The 1-hour, 4-hour, 1-day, and 1-week charts are all in a bearish arrangement. The shorter time frames are in consolidation, and we need to rally to around 80,000 and then pull back with volume without breaking 777 to confirm that the short-term 'bottom' has been established. The lowest point last night was 755. According to previous calculations, 755 x 1.03 = 777.65, so we need to hold this level.
Right now, going long is a left-side trade, which carries extremely high risk and may not result in a favorable pattern. Whether this is the bottom depends on the institutions' intentions and the ETF's attitude. In a fast market, all indicators become dull and ineffective. At this point, it relies entirely on market feel and experience. Left-side trades are not as good as right-side trades; having more patience to wait for the right side may be better. If you're really afraid of missing out, you can buy spot, and you can buy a bit of mainstream coins, but it's best to only have a position that does not exceed 20% of your total holding. If it drops, don’t rush to average down.
By the way, pay more attention to tonight's market. It's okay if it doesn't rise tonight, but it must not continue to decline. Otherwise, you really need to be careful of another pin drop on the daily chart...
In any case, I am a firm bull (though I occasionally short some altcoins). At low levels, I can only slowly touch the bottom with tight losses. There will always be a bottom...
Unfortunately, friends who went long on the daily chart are probably losing at this point. You just have to hold on. Even if this is not the bottom, it won't be too far away. As long as you haven't bought a high-position altcoin that is in a distribution phase, the probability of getting completely trapped is not high.
Today, I got a haircut, so I guess I’m starting fresh. I received the mouse I ordered a few days ago on Pinduoduo tonight. It's really just life patching things up, and in the crypto world, money is spent like dirt. Over ten thousand USD, no big deal, just a small issue, buying a mouse for 65.5 RMB, hesitating and struggling for half a month...
I need to take more profits and withdraw more funds; don’t learn from me, please don’t learn from me. My situation of not withdrawing funds for five to six years is somewhat 'pathological' in a way, and that’s not right. When I can have a slightly larger outcome later, I will also withdraw some funds... to improve my life appropriately...