To be honest, the window is already open, but below it is all traps. $VVV This round came up from the bottom and traveled more than a dozen times the distance, yet it also pushed back to around the previous high while pressing against pressure against the trend. From what I see, this kind of price action actually makes me more cautious. I’m not saying it can’t keep running, but at this point the risk-reward ratio is already seriously inverted. Moving upward means facing the sell pressure from the massive trapped positions of the previous phase at every step; moving downward is much smoother. Let’s review the volume structure of this rebound. During the rally, there wasn’t sustained volume catching/absorption. Instead, it’s more like a pattern of shrinking-volume, slow bullish price increases (small bearish-to-bullish body creeping up). Near a pressure zone, this style can easily be swallowed directly by a single big bearish candle.
That previous-high area has accumulated too many floating gains/positions. When price fell from the high earlier, a large amount of capital got trapped there. Now that the price has finally returned to their cost zone, do you think those people will hold onto it—or quickly exit? I lean toward the latter. What the chart feels like to me is that this contrarian rebound is more like a process of providing liquidity to the previously trapped positions, rather than a new trend kickoff. On the 4-hour timeframe, momentum has already started to fade. Each time it pushes higher, the advance is getting narrower. As this wedge-like structure runs to its end, the probability of a downward direction is high.
We’re going short not to fight the trend, but to follow the natural resistance logic of this level—waiting for the market to give its own answer. And of course, I’m not saying to blindly chase shorts. The key is to watch whether it can effectively break below the lower edge of the recent consolidation range. Once it breaks, downside room will open up. If it keeps grinding around the previous high, then just wait—there’s no need to repeatedly test the trap’s edge. At this point, patience matters more than courage. Keep the bearish logic unchanged and wait for the structure to confirm.
As we look at the vastness of the mountains and seas, we observe the market’s subtle movements.
Walk with Uncle Xiong—watch the gains and losses of each day.
#VVV
Click below to trade 👇
That previous-high area has accumulated too many floating gains/positions. When price fell from the high earlier, a large amount of capital got trapped there. Now that the price has finally returned to their cost zone, do you think those people will hold onto it—or quickly exit? I lean toward the latter. What the chart feels like to me is that this contrarian rebound is more like a process of providing liquidity to the previously trapped positions, rather than a new trend kickoff. On the 4-hour timeframe, momentum has already started to fade. Each time it pushes higher, the advance is getting narrower. As this wedge-like structure runs to its end, the probability of a downward direction is high.
We’re going short not to fight the trend, but to follow the natural resistance logic of this level—waiting for the market to give its own answer. And of course, I’m not saying to blindly chase shorts. The key is to watch whether it can effectively break below the lower edge of the recent consolidation range. Once it breaks, downside room will open up. If it keeps grinding around the previous high, then just wait—there’s no need to repeatedly test the trap’s edge. At this point, patience matters more than courage. Keep the bearish logic unchanged and wait for the structure to confirm.
As we look at the vastness of the mountains and seas, we observe the market’s subtle movements.
Walk with Uncle Xiong—watch the gains and losses of each day.
#VVV
Click below to trade 👇