$ETH has gained nearly 30% over these three days, but if you stayed out of the market and just watched, the feeling in your heart is probably even more unbearable than losing money. What makes it hard to bear is this: I didn’t chase when it was at $2,520 the day before yesterday. Yesterday, at $2,400, I thought it would pull back. Today it dropped to $2,418, but instead I became even more afraid to move.
The market picture is actually pretty clear. Before August 19, $ETH traded sideways near $1,880 for almost a month, with most volume hovering around 5–8B. On August 20, it suddenly brought out $27.77B of volume, and the price jumped directly to $2,253. The next day, it continued to surge with volume at $25B, then pushed up to $2,326—this is typical of incremental capital entering, not a weak rebound driven by existing players. But today, volume has fallen back to $19.44B and the price is down 3.66%, indicating that the first wave of aggressive buying has ended and the market is waiting for the next batch to take over.
What I care more about is that $ETH is still about 51% away from ATH, and its one-year drawdown is close to half. This move looks more like an oversold rebound combined with a liquidity impulse, rather than a confirmed reversal of the cycle. If volume can hold above $20B and it keeps $2,393—the 24h low—as support, then there may still be room ahead. If trading volume shrinks back below $10B, this could end up being a brief, urgent mean reversion.
The cost of chasing is that you might be buying at the emotional peak. The cost of missing out is watching it keep moving. So the question is simple: would you rather buy in the $2,400–$2,450 range and take the risk of a pullback to $2,250, or wait for a right-side signal after volume expands again? Of these two choices, which one can you hold onto better?
The market picture is actually pretty clear. Before August 19, $ETH traded sideways near $1,880 for almost a month, with most volume hovering around 5–8B. On August 20, it suddenly brought out $27.77B of volume, and the price jumped directly to $2,253. The next day, it continued to surge with volume at $25B, then pushed up to $2,326—this is typical of incremental capital entering, not a weak rebound driven by existing players. But today, volume has fallen back to $19.44B and the price is down 3.66%, indicating that the first wave of aggressive buying has ended and the market is waiting for the next batch to take over.
What I care more about is that $ETH is still about 51% away from ATH, and its one-year drawdown is close to half. This move looks more like an oversold rebound combined with a liquidity impulse, rather than a confirmed reversal of the cycle. If volume can hold above $20B and it keeps $2,393—the 24h low—as support, then there may still be room ahead. If trading volume shrinks back below $10B, this could end up being a brief, urgent mean reversion.
The cost of chasing is that you might be buying at the emotional peak. The cost of missing out is watching it keep moving. So the question is simple: would you rather buy in the $2,400–$2,450 range and take the risk of a pullback to $2,250, or wait for a right-side signal after volume expands again? Of these two choices, which one can you hold onto better?