Gold and silver surge warning!
The common problem of retail investors has never changed: during boom periods, they get swept into the market by the heat, and during recessions, they stubbornly hold on after being trapped, only to cut losses at the lowest point during prolonged depressions, and when the recovery period starts, they can only slap their thighs in regret repeatedly.
In the gold and silver market, this scene has long been played out repeatedly, with the outcomes of two super surges serving as painful lessons.
The first time was from 1979 to 1980, when gold soared from $200 to $850 in a year, and silver jumped from $6 to $50, but just two months after peaking, gold halved, and silver plummeted by two-thirds, subsequently falling into a low period lasting 20 years.
The second time was from 2010 to 2011, when gold rose from $1,000 to $1,921, and silver touched the $50 high again, with gold experiencing a maximum drawdown of 45% and silver dropping 70%, followed by years of declining sideways movement.
The commonality of these two surges is clear: neither represented a normal bull market, but rather emotional pricing under extreme macro pressure, whether due to the oil crisis, severe inflation, or post-crisis liquidity, the more it rises crazily, the harder it falls.
Now, a new round of surges has begun, with central banks buying gold, de-dollarization, and industrial demand for silver becoming the new story. Many believe this time will be different, but history has long shown that the drawdowns following such levels of surges are never gentle, with gold typically starting at an average drawdown of 30% and silver often exceeding 50%.
Interestingly, the cryptocurrency market is currently experiencing a reverse trend: while gold and silver are at an emotional high, Bitcoin and crypto assets are still in the early stages of liquidity pricing.
Commodities reflect the end stage of risk appetite, while crypto assets are the core vehicle for the next round of risk appetite release. When stable assets reach the emotional peak, the story of risk assets is just beginning.
Here's a painful secret: those who firmly believe in a long-term bull market for gold and those who are certain the crypto market will drop below its bottom are essentially the same type—both are swept up by current emotions and fail to see the logic of the cycle switch.
Whether it's the crypto market, gold and silver, stocks, or other markets, the key to making money is never to follow the crowd, but to respect the cycle and maintain one's true intentions. Understanding the cycle, stabilizing one's mindset, and distinguishing between emotion and value are crucial to avoiding the fate of being a retail investor and seizing real opportunities. #金银为何暴跌 @顶级交易员昭财
The common problem of retail investors has never changed: during boom periods, they get swept into the market by the heat, and during recessions, they stubbornly hold on after being trapped, only to cut losses at the lowest point during prolonged depressions, and when the recovery period starts, they can only slap their thighs in regret repeatedly.
In the gold and silver market, this scene has long been played out repeatedly, with the outcomes of two super surges serving as painful lessons.
The first time was from 1979 to 1980, when gold soared from $200 to $850 in a year, and silver jumped from $6 to $50, but just two months after peaking, gold halved, and silver plummeted by two-thirds, subsequently falling into a low period lasting 20 years.
The second time was from 2010 to 2011, when gold rose from $1,000 to $1,921, and silver touched the $50 high again, with gold experiencing a maximum drawdown of 45% and silver dropping 70%, followed by years of declining sideways movement.
The commonality of these two surges is clear: neither represented a normal bull market, but rather emotional pricing under extreme macro pressure, whether due to the oil crisis, severe inflation, or post-crisis liquidity, the more it rises crazily, the harder it falls.
Now, a new round of surges has begun, with central banks buying gold, de-dollarization, and industrial demand for silver becoming the new story. Many believe this time will be different, but history has long shown that the drawdowns following such levels of surges are never gentle, with gold typically starting at an average drawdown of 30% and silver often exceeding 50%.
Interestingly, the cryptocurrency market is currently experiencing a reverse trend: while gold and silver are at an emotional high, Bitcoin and crypto assets are still in the early stages of liquidity pricing.
Commodities reflect the end stage of risk appetite, while crypto assets are the core vehicle for the next round of risk appetite release. When stable assets reach the emotional peak, the story of risk assets is just beginning.
Here's a painful secret: those who firmly believe in a long-term bull market for gold and those who are certain the crypto market will drop below its bottom are essentially the same type—both are swept up by current emotions and fail to see the logic of the cycle switch.
Whether it's the crypto market, gold and silver, stocks, or other markets, the key to making money is never to follow the crowd, but to respect the cycle and maintain one's true intentions. Understanding the cycle, stabilizing one's mindset, and distinguishing between emotion and value are crucial to avoiding the fate of being a retail investor and seizing real opportunities. #金银为何暴跌 @顶级交易员昭财
