ASTER is currently around 0.647. First, the conclusion: I won’t chase this. I’ll wait until the selling pressure is released.
First, let’s look at the structure of this move. Over three days it surged more than seven points, topping out at 0.78. But on the same day, a single four-hour candlestick directly crashed from around 0.75 down to 0.60. After this kind of spike-and-reversal, the four-hour timeframe has already turned downward, and the 15-minute moving averages are pressing down on the price. The upward momentum from this rally is basically used up.
The key is that the money is moving. In the spot market, for nearly the last three hours it has been net outflows—out of 12 candlesticks, there hasn’t been a single positive one. Large orders are also exiting. When it was pumped, someone propped it up—but after it started to fall, real money is clearly being sold. Futures open interest has also increased by almost 6 points. Price is moving down while open interest is rising; this combination usually isn’t a good sign.
Sentiment and technicals also don’t favor the bulls. Over the past 24 hours, KOLs have largely been bearish. The discussion has centered on “a quick drop” and “liquidations.” The news backdrop is bearish too, with no new catalysts. On indicators, RSI has climbed to the 80+ range and MFI is close to 90—both are the aftereffects of an overly aggressive push. In the short term, the market needs to digest.
There is some bullish evidence, though. The share of active buy orders is still more than 60%, and buy volume in the order book is also pressing against sell volume. But that’s mostly short-term support; it can’t stop large capital from reducing.
So my stance is very clear: don’t chase—wait. Either wait for the sell pressure to be fully released and price to regain stability, or wait until capital flows turn positive again. Acting now is not as good as keeping your position for a more comfortable spot.
#aster $ASTER
First, let’s look at the structure of this move. Over three days it surged more than seven points, topping out at 0.78. But on the same day, a single four-hour candlestick directly crashed from around 0.75 down to 0.60. After this kind of spike-and-reversal, the four-hour timeframe has already turned downward, and the 15-minute moving averages are pressing down on the price. The upward momentum from this rally is basically used up.
The key is that the money is moving. In the spot market, for nearly the last three hours it has been net outflows—out of 12 candlesticks, there hasn’t been a single positive one. Large orders are also exiting. When it was pumped, someone propped it up—but after it started to fall, real money is clearly being sold. Futures open interest has also increased by almost 6 points. Price is moving down while open interest is rising; this combination usually isn’t a good sign.
Sentiment and technicals also don’t favor the bulls. Over the past 24 hours, KOLs have largely been bearish. The discussion has centered on “a quick drop” and “liquidations.” The news backdrop is bearish too, with no new catalysts. On indicators, RSI has climbed to the 80+ range and MFI is close to 90—both are the aftereffects of an overly aggressive push. In the short term, the market needs to digest.
There is some bullish evidence, though. The share of active buy orders is still more than 60%, and buy volume in the order book is also pressing against sell volume. But that’s mostly short-term support; it can’t stop large capital from reducing.
So my stance is very clear: don’t chase—wait. Either wait for the sell pressure to be fully released and price to regain stability, or wait until capital flows turn positive again. Acting now is not as good as keeping your position for a more comfortable spot.
#aster $ASTER