$SOL Before this surge, my intuition was that the longer the market consolidates and the cleaner the volume contraction, the more seriously the next direction should be considered. But this intuition needs verification—not just glancing at a 7-day +25% move. What needs to be confirmed are two figures: on August 16, volume shrank to $640 million while price barely budged; on August 20, it suddenly jumped to $4.36 billion, and over the next two days kept stacking up to $8.16 billion—volume moved before price.
Over the past three weeks, $SOL has been grinding between 72 and 76, with most volume around 1–1.5B, and active sell orders have basically dried up. In the last four days, price pushed from 76 to 94; 7-day gains are up 25%, and 30-day gains up 24.75%, but it’s still -67.8% away from ATH. That distance suggests there’s an extremely heavy overhead trapped supply, so I’m only defining this move as a liquidity return—not a trend reversal.
The intraday high hit 102 in the past 24 hours, and it’s now closing at 94. That indicates some profit-taking is happening, but volume hasn’t immediately contracted—which is a good sign, though not enough. What I care about more is how volume behaves during the next pullback: if a contraction pullback to 85–87 can hold, then the upmove has continuity; if volume expands and price breaks down below 85, then it’s a bear trap.
There are only two conditions under which my view becomes invalid: daily trading volume falls below 3B, or price fails to reclaim 90 within three days. At that point, I’ll admit the judgment was wrong. Don’t rush to pick a side—use these two conditions to watch the chart. It’s more useful than listening to anyone’s conclusion.
Over the past three weeks, $SOL has been grinding between 72 and 76, with most volume around 1–1.5B, and active sell orders have basically dried up. In the last four days, price pushed from 76 to 94; 7-day gains are up 25%, and 30-day gains up 24.75%, but it’s still -67.8% away from ATH. That distance suggests there’s an extremely heavy overhead trapped supply, so I’m only defining this move as a liquidity return—not a trend reversal.
The intraday high hit 102 in the past 24 hours, and it’s now closing at 94. That indicates some profit-taking is happening, but volume hasn’t immediately contracted—which is a good sign, though not enough. What I care about more is how volume behaves during the next pullback: if a contraction pullback to 85–87 can hold, then the upmove has continuity; if volume expands and price breaks down below 85, then it’s a bear trap.
There are only two conditions under which my view becomes invalid: daily trading volume falls below 3B, or price fails to reclaim 90 within three days. At that point, I’ll admit the judgment was wrong. Don’t rush to pick a side—use these two conditions to watch the chart. It’s more useful than listening to anyone’s conclusion.