According to CryptoQuant analyst Darkfost, 17.7% of Bitcoin’s circulating supply has been inactive for more than 10 years. The cryptocurrency ecosystem typically classifies coins that have been inactive for over a decade as lost. Just in the past month, more than 14,000 BTC were added to this category. By subtracting these 3.56 million BTC from the nominal maximum supply, the actual supply that will never be able to return to the market is reduced substantially.
Although this supply shock supports long-term bull cycles, in the short term the price still depends more on macroeconomic liquidity, demand for spot Bitcoin ETFs, and trading volume on exchanges.
According to Markus Thielen of 10x Research, Bitcoin would need an estimated US$15 trillion in additional capital to reach a price of US$1,000,000 by 2030—approximately 25% of the value of the US stock market. Thielen argues that forecasts that placed BTC near one million dollars by the end of the decade are «mathematically impossible» under the current dynamics.
As one full unit of BTC becomes more expensive, retail adoption tends to slow down due to investors’ psychological bias toward wanting to buy whole units rather than fractions. Although industry figures like Cathie Wood or Jack Dorsey maintained US$1,000,000 targets for 2030, this kind of analysis highlights the gap between the most optimistic projections and the mathematical limitations of global liquidity.
#EEUU #BTC #bitcoin #etf #ReserveRights $BTC $WBTC
Although this supply shock supports long-term bull cycles, in the short term the price still depends more on macroeconomic liquidity, demand for spot Bitcoin ETFs, and trading volume on exchanges.
According to Markus Thielen of 10x Research, Bitcoin would need an estimated US$15 trillion in additional capital to reach a price of US$1,000,000 by 2030—approximately 25% of the value of the US stock market. Thielen argues that forecasts that placed BTC near one million dollars by the end of the decade are «mathematically impossible» under the current dynamics.
As one full unit of BTC becomes more expensive, retail adoption tends to slow down due to investors’ psychological bias toward wanting to buy whole units rather than fractions. Although industry figures like Cathie Wood or Jack Dorsey maintained US$1,000,000 targets for 2030, this kind of analysis highlights the gap between the most optimistic projections and the mathematical limitations of global liquidity.
#EEUU #BTC #bitcoin #etf #ReserveRights $BTC $WBTC