BTC is now around 77,280. First, the conclusion: I still recognize the direction, but I’m not chasing at this level.
This move went from 62.6k all the way to 79.5k—within seven days it rose 22%, and in just three days it was up nearly 20%. It’s climbed too fast. Now it’s pulling back to above 77k, and it has reclaimed the 15-minute moving average, but it hasn’t broken back above the previous high. The one-hour, four-hour, and daily directions are all flat—short-term, price is really just consolidating sideways.
That said, the buy-side is genuinely strong. In the last three hours, spot net inflows have been positive for twelve consecutive candlesticks, all red. Big orders are still continuously coming in, and the narrative—ETF and institutions accumulating—remains intact. MACD is also in the bullish zone—these are my reasons for not going bearish.
But here’s the problem: the 12-hour leverage indicator suddenly spiked 419%, and the spot leverage side has the long/short ratio up to 34x. Large holders have 67% of their positions still leaning long and are continuing to add, while futures open interest has also increased another 5.7% in a day. On top of that, RSI is already 86 and volatility is at full tilt. At this point, long positions are already crowded; it’s all being supported by continuous funding rotation.
So my stance is one line: don’t chase longs, and don’t rush into a short. The direction isn’t broken, but the short-term chase at this level has poor value. Wait for a pullback, and wait for the leverage and crowded positioning to cool off before getting in—it’ll feel much better.
#btc $BTC
This move went from 62.6k all the way to 79.5k—within seven days it rose 22%, and in just three days it was up nearly 20%. It’s climbed too fast. Now it’s pulling back to above 77k, and it has reclaimed the 15-minute moving average, but it hasn’t broken back above the previous high. The one-hour, four-hour, and daily directions are all flat—short-term, price is really just consolidating sideways.
That said, the buy-side is genuinely strong. In the last three hours, spot net inflows have been positive for twelve consecutive candlesticks, all red. Big orders are still continuously coming in, and the narrative—ETF and institutions accumulating—remains intact. MACD is also in the bullish zone—these are my reasons for not going bearish.
But here’s the problem: the 12-hour leverage indicator suddenly spiked 419%, and the spot leverage side has the long/short ratio up to 34x. Large holders have 67% of their positions still leaning long and are continuing to add, while futures open interest has also increased another 5.7% in a day. On top of that, RSI is already 86 and volatility is at full tilt. At this point, long positions are already crowded; it’s all being supported by continuous funding rotation.
So my stance is one line: don’t chase longs, and don’t rush into a short. The direction isn’t broken, but the short-term chase at this level has poor value. Wait for a pullback, and wait for the leverage and crowded positioning to cool off before getting in—it’ll feel much better.
#btc $BTC