$ONG 15-minute level went down another cut, dropping 2.7%, and this “cut” came with volume—trading volume was 2.24 times the norm, directly breaking through the lower bound of nearly 20 consecutive 5-minute candlestick ranges.
What’s even more interesting is the contract structure: while the price is falling, the open interest (OI) is actually rising—both the 15-minute and 1-hour timeframes are increasing in sync. This combination of “price down + OI up” is unlikely to be longs bottom-fishing; it looks more like newly added leveraged short positions are actively entering. On top of that, the aggressive trade imbalance is -22%, the buy/sell ratio is only 0.64, and the sell pressure on the order book is undeniably real.
The capital flow also supports this view: although the absolute change in OI notional ranks among the top in the whole pool (#30), the notional amount is actually net outflow—15 minutes: -180K, 1 hour: -227K—forming a pattern of shorts adding positions while long positions exit in tandem. Just looking at this one candlestick, short-side sentiment hasn’t fully flushed out in the near term.
What’s even more interesting is the contract structure: while the price is falling, the open interest (OI) is actually rising—both the 15-minute and 1-hour timeframes are increasing in sync. This combination of “price down + OI up” is unlikely to be longs bottom-fishing; it looks more like newly added leveraged short positions are actively entering. On top of that, the aggressive trade imbalance is -22%, the buy/sell ratio is only 0.64, and the sell pressure on the order book is undeniably real.
The capital flow also supports this view: although the absolute change in OI notional ranks among the top in the whole pool (#30), the notional amount is actually net outflow—15 minutes: -180K, 1 hour: -227K—forming a pattern of shorts adding positions while long positions exit in tandem. Just looking at this one candlestick, short-side sentiment hasn’t fully flushed out in the near term.