Aug 22 Evening Analysis #TRUMP突破3.4美元创3月21日以来新高
Over the past 24 hours, macro risk-avoidance sentiment has intensified, and after the impact of derivatives liquidation, today the overall crypto market continues to drift lower in a weak posture while searching for support. On the global macro front, geopolitical tensions repeatedly overlap with subtle changes in the Fed’s policy path; U.S. Treasury yields have been rising at elevated levels, continuously squeezing risk assets. Traditional U.S. equities and crypto assets have both fallen together. Meanwhile, on-chain leverage long positions remain high. In the absence of sustained support from new spot-buy inflows, even mild selling pressure can trigger a localized liquidation chain. If liquidity above on the short term cannot be replenished effectively, the market may probe further into key demand zones. With the combination of high volatility and missing liquidity, traders must stay highly vigilant $GOOGL.US
BTC Analysis: As a macro liquidity amplifier, Bitcoin has been significantly affected by the pullback in U.S. stock risk appetite. Spot ETF inflows have slowed noticeably. Institutional funds are temporarily shifting toward taking profits and standing by. In terms of technical structure, combining the Wyckoff distribution model, the current price is in the SOW confirmation phase of range-bound consolidation. Volume Profile shows that the POC is near 77800. The VAH at 78500 forms strong short-term supply resistance above. The VAL at 76600 is the key bottom line for long-side defense. Indicators: The BOLL bands are opening with the lower band pressing down; the 4-hour MACD histogram continues below the zero axis. RSI is stabilizing weakly around 42. KDJ is in a low-level oversold rebound, but momentum remains insufficient. If 77500 cannot be effectively regained, a second round of downside stampede is easily triggered $BTC
ETH Analysis: The ETH/BTC exchange rate continues to weaken, and relative performance remains soft. On-chain data shows that large holders and institutional capital have recently been more inclined to convert ETH into stablecoins or lend it out to hedge. Layer 2 transaction volume diverting also keeps the mainnet Gas fee rate low. The deflationary effect has weakened and may even turn briefly into inflation. During this pullback, ETH’s downside has exceeded BTC’s; the exchange rate is approaching prior lows. Active buy-side demand is clearly lacking. Technically, prices repeatedly test and hit the 2400–2420 support area. Once this liquidity pool is broken, downside room will open up. Bulls must build a solid defense here, otherwise the weak setup is unlikely to be reversed in the short term. Also follow for updates on A-Su! $ETH