$BCH now around 277u—three days: from 201 up to 306, then got knocked back to 277. I’m not chasing here, and I’m not in a hurry to enter.
The rise is real: in the last three hours, spot net inflows are over 1.7 million, and all twelve K-lines are green—every one of them. The whales’ positions are still adding up. The reason I’m not bearish is that during these pullback days, real money is still flowing in; that’s the biggest difference between this leg and a purely emotion-driven move.
But the problem is also obvious: RSI 84, MFI 89—overbought pushed straight to the sky. Price broke above the upper Bollinger Band, then was pulled back. The 15-minute moving averages are all stacked above the head, and in the three-hour chart, active sell pressure has the upper hand. Plus, the contract open interest increased by more than 40% in a day, and it’s all concentrated on the long side. The more ferociously it pumps, the easier it is for pullbacks to amplify volatility.
To put it plainly: this is a digestion phase after a move up too much. Spot is still being accumulated, and the whales haven’t exited—unlike a distribution phase. However, the short-term structure is broken, and the first wave of pullback hasn’t finished yet. Chasing longs from this level generally isn’t a good risk-reward.
I’ll wait for two kinds of signals: either a pullback settling around 260 with a surge in volume, or a fresh breakout with renewed volume above 306. In the meantime, I’ll watch and wait while the market chooses its direction.
#bch $BCH
The rise is real: in the last three hours, spot net inflows are over 1.7 million, and all twelve K-lines are green—every one of them. The whales’ positions are still adding up. The reason I’m not bearish is that during these pullback days, real money is still flowing in; that’s the biggest difference between this leg and a purely emotion-driven move.
But the problem is also obvious: RSI 84, MFI 89—overbought pushed straight to the sky. Price broke above the upper Bollinger Band, then was pulled back. The 15-minute moving averages are all stacked above the head, and in the three-hour chart, active sell pressure has the upper hand. Plus, the contract open interest increased by more than 40% in a day, and it’s all concentrated on the long side. The more ferociously it pumps, the easier it is for pullbacks to amplify volatility.
To put it plainly: this is a digestion phase after a move up too much. Spot is still being accumulated, and the whales haven’t exited—unlike a distribution phase. However, the short-term structure is broken, and the first wave of pullback hasn’t finished yet. Chasing longs from this level generally isn’t a good risk-reward.
I’ll wait for two kinds of signals: either a pullback settling around 260 with a surge in volume, or a fresh breakout with renewed volume above 306. In the meantime, I’ll watch and wait while the market chooses its direction.
#bch $BCH