Has the bull market really returned? A brief discussion of my outlook for the near term～
In the past couple of days, Bitcoin has surged, and the market is also awash with good news—people are getting fired up. I’ve been getting injections for a whole week this week due to health reasons, so I didn’t go live. Many friends have been asking about what to do with the situation involving “Etherman” (Ultraman)—what should we do? Actually, the answer was already teased to everyone in last week’s livestream. I’ve been clear about my viewpoint to you: two consecutive months of nonfarm payrolls + CPI have all been positive signals. The negative sentiment about 6.78 over three months hasn’t caused the price to drop. By using time to create space, the market has digested the expectation of a big selloff. Inflation has shown signs of easing, rate-hike expectations have been pushed back, and with the midterm election in November, all these positive factors are spreading through market sentiment. It’s hard for the market to slip into a major downturn. We need to change our mindset and think in terms of a trend reversal.
After last Wednesday’s CPI data, I also shared the buy-side and profit-taking logic in the broadcast. During the livestream, I gave you multiple times guidance to short in the 646–650 range. Then last Friday, when it reached 623–625, I reminded you it was about time and to turn around to a long/bullish approach—which I also explained very clearly. In the second half of the month, the entire market turned around and went into choppy consolidation with a bullish bias, and it all matched the judgment.
Right now the market sentiment is extremely euphoric and beyond most people’s expectations. But some people still say, “Shorting while following you, you only do shorts.” I won’t take that blame. I have to say clearly: this week I’ve been bullish all the way and didn’t issue a single short call. My whole strategy has been about execution and realizing gains throughout. I kept reminding you not to short—first look at 650, then 730, then 766. Everything was realized. If you still want to put this blame on me, I’m afraid I can’t carry it.
So is the market a bull comeback or just a rebound right now? Let’s talk about the upcoming pacing. This week’s strong rally boosted several key sectors the most!
1、Macro liquidity catalyst (the most core macro news)
The U.S. Treasury announced a doubling of the size of its long-term Treasury repo program and increased purchases of long-end Treasuries, which pushes down yields on long-term U.S. debt and weakens the dollar at the margin. This boosts the valuation of risk assets. The market interpretation is that this isn’t quantitative easing (QE), but it genuinely improves market liquidity—high-risk assets like Bitcoin benefit directly.
2、U.S. crypto regulatory positive news
1. Trump meets with crypto executives such as Coinbase at the White House and publicly pushes for the (CLARITY Act) to be implemented, giving the industry a clear regulatory framework expectation.
2. The SEC released a draft “crypto asset safe harbor,” lowering compliance thresholds for projects. At the same time, signals have circulated that it will push overseas compliant platforms to enter the U.S. market, which greatly improves market sentiment.
3、Liquidity conditions: Spot Bitcoin ETF continues to see large inflows
U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs have seen net inflows for multiple consecutive days. The highest single-day inflow reached $606 million, with roughly $1.6 billion accumulated over four days. BlackRock’s IBIT is the main buying force, representing traditional institutional funds flowing back into the spot market.
4、Derivatives: Massive short liquidations (amplifying the rally)
In the early stage, a large number of short positions had been accumulated at lower levels. After the price broke through a key level, it triggered a chain reaction of forced liquidation of shorts. Short covering created a passive buying pressure. Over two days, the shorts were liquidated by over $4 billion, further accelerating the upside—this is like an amplifier for the rally.
5，The whale address stops selling and shows accumulation behavior;
U.S. crypto-related stocks (Coinbase, Strategy) move up in sync, creating a positive feedback loop.
These are the most core catalysts behind the accelerated surge. Bitcoin has already rallied by nearly 18,000 ticks so far this week—will it still get further momentum? Can the altcoin sector really take off?
Our initial judgment on how things stand with OpenAI is that the market’s “bull comeback” trend has basically not been far off from expectations. This is still in the early budding stage. This week’s large-scale sudden market reversal has already turned the situation around, but there will still be multiple tests ahead. Whether it’s news about the Fed being temporarily hawkish/dovish, or developments in the Middle East influencing things, in the July/August market the impact has been far from decisive. This week, under the biggest tailwind coming from positive U.S. government news, it directly boosted crypto’s own sentiment. So no matter how the subsequent cross-cutting effects play out, bullish tailwinds for the next 2–3 months will keep coming, and funds will keep flowing in. Prices will keep setting new highs. Therefore, what we can do is to follow the market’s rhythm: go long, stay bullish. Also, soon comes the classic “Golden September and Silver October,” which will be good for multiple sectors!
Below, I’ll share the assets I think we can cover, and you can refer to them yourselves~
Bitcoin: After the July 1 low of 57,800 rose to 79,500, it has already broken the weekly resistance, pushed through a key barrier, and the next move will further break higher and continue toward the 83,000–96,000–106,000 range. Continue to arrange the setup around a long/bullish order flow. Key support to watch: 74,600 and the 73,000 area. If there’s a slight pullback, that’s a good time to set up a swing trade. For the short term: small dips, small buys; big dips, big buys!
Ethereum: Once the push starts, there should be another big opportunity afterward. This round is expected to still have plenty of “residual heat.” Pushing into the 2,800–3,200 area is also achievable.
Gold: After this pullback, it basically signals the start. Once the 4600 level is reclaimed and holds, the next targets are 4860–5200–5800. When it pulls back, that’s when you arrange the swing trade. Step by step, stay bullish!
Trump is expected to surge to 8–12, so you can参考 entering with a smaller position first!
For LTC, there isn’t much of a big push yet. Once it truly starts, the 85–102 zone should show up early!
SOL—if it still has room to rise, start by looking at the 125–146 zone!
For other assets, please keep an eye on what’s next for OpenAI, too! Everyone, stay tuned! When the opportunity comes, make good use of it—this is a chance to get rich in a wave. Gold-grade guidance is one-on-one, starting from 10 wu. Only the last 5 people! I only take those who truly have the heart—only those who do! $BTC