I don’t think this round looks like a real bull run 🐂
It’s more like the illusion of a rebound in a bear market.
First, even if there’s a rate cut, there’s still significant disagreement—U.S. Treasury yields remain high, and the macroeconomy hasn’t reached a stage where liquidity is fully unleashed with a broad easing of policy.
Second, a sizable portion of this rally is a short-term rebound driven by policy tailwinds, which triggered forced buying as many short positions were liquidated. It’s not a multi-fold surge in spot volume typical of a bull market.
Third, I believe the involvement of large institutions could change the Bitcoin cycle. However, from October to now in August, it doesn’t quite make sense that the bear-market cycle has already ended.
It’s more like the illusion of a rebound in a bear market.
First, even if there’s a rate cut, there’s still significant disagreement—U.S. Treasury yields remain high, and the macroeconomy hasn’t reached a stage where liquidity is fully unleashed with a broad easing of policy.
Second, a sizable portion of this rally is a short-term rebound driven by policy tailwinds, which triggered forced buying as many short positions were liquidated. It’s not a multi-fold surge in spot volume typical of a bull market.
Third, I believe the involvement of large institutions could change the Bitcoin cycle. However, from October to now in August, it doesn’t quite make sense that the bear-market cycle has already ended.
