AVAX is now around 7.65u. Longs and shorts are fighting hard at this level, so I choose to wait and see.
This recent rally has been truly fierce—over a three-day period, the perpetual contract pushed up about twenty points, rising from 6.28 all the way to 8.33. But today at noon, it put on a show with a wick: within one hour, it was dumped from 8.24 straight down to 7.0, with volume expanding to four times the usual level. Then it was pulled back to 7.65. Volatility is clearly amplified—this signal can’t be ignored.
The bulls have some foundation. After the wick, over the next 7 hours, the big players were still adding positions; the long side makes up more than 70% of positioning. Spot markets saw a net inflow of over $12 million in 3 hours, and all 12 candlesticks were net inflows—this rebound isn’t happening with nobody buying.
However, risk is building as well. RSI is above 77 (overbought), and MFI is also sitting right near the overbought zone. Funding rates have turned positive, and leveraged borrowing has surged fivefold within 12 hours. The long positions are already crowded. Active selling is still ongoing; over the past 7 hours, open interest hasn’t risen—it’s actually decreased. Some of the money that pushed the price up is already withdrawing.
So this isn’t a short call—it’s just a bad spot to chase. After being wicked once already, pushing higher needs fresh capital to take the baton. The key is whether the retest and drop to 7.0 can hold—the wick low. If it holds, that confirms a more bullish structure; if it breaks, then everything needs to be reassessed.
At this level, I’m choosing to wait for the pullback and not chase. Let the capital flow reveal the answer.
#avax $AVAX
This recent rally has been truly fierce—over a three-day period, the perpetual contract pushed up about twenty points, rising from 6.28 all the way to 8.33. But today at noon, it put on a show with a wick: within one hour, it was dumped from 8.24 straight down to 7.0, with volume expanding to four times the usual level. Then it was pulled back to 7.65. Volatility is clearly amplified—this signal can’t be ignored.
The bulls have some foundation. After the wick, over the next 7 hours, the big players were still adding positions; the long side makes up more than 70% of positioning. Spot markets saw a net inflow of over $12 million in 3 hours, and all 12 candlesticks were net inflows—this rebound isn’t happening with nobody buying.
However, risk is building as well. RSI is above 77 (overbought), and MFI is also sitting right near the overbought zone. Funding rates have turned positive, and leveraged borrowing has surged fivefold within 12 hours. The long positions are already crowded. Active selling is still ongoing; over the past 7 hours, open interest hasn’t risen—it’s actually decreased. Some of the money that pushed the price up is already withdrawing.
So this isn’t a short call—it’s just a bad spot to chase. After being wicked once already, pushing higher needs fresh capital to take the baton. The key is whether the retest and drop to 7.0 can hold—the wick low. If it holds, that confirms a more bullish structure; if it breaks, then everything needs to be reassessed.
At this level, I’m choosing to wait for the pullback and not chase. Let the capital flow reveal the answer.
#avax $AVAX