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A big pancake in three days surged from 64,000 to 78,000; within 24 hours it liquidated 3.3 billion, and nine out of ten are “the air force.” On the square, people are already shouting “the bull is back,” but I suggest you don’t rush.
First, acknowledge the facts: this move really has something propping it up. The U.S. Treasury is repurchasing bonds and easing liquidity; big ETF inflows are putting in real money; and the shorts are packed tightly above 68,000—once you pull, they get squeezed and explode; the higher it goes, the more they explode—this is a classic short liquidation stampede, not pure FOMO.
But the problem is precisely here.
Shorts closing their positions is a one-time buy impulse; once the explosion is over, it’s gone. For the next leg, someone has to take over—and the person taking over needs conviction stronger than the “forced buying.” ETF inflows look great in a single day, but you need to see a few weeks in a row; the macro is only a short-term liquidity release, and the Fed hasn’t truly changed course yet. Price moving above the 200-day line doesn’t mean it has firmly held; fake breakouts are something we’ve seen too many times in this cycle. The daily RSI is already overbought—this kind of slope can’t keep climbing forever. If you chase it in the short term, you’re most likely the one catching the baton at the end.
Don’t chase the highs in the short term. The 80,000–82,000 area above is a strong resistance zone, packed with a large number of trapped holders. Below, 70,000–72,000 is the key line of defense—only if it holds do you have the right to talk about something higher. If it falls back below 69,000, then this is just a big rebound, not the start of a bull run.
A real bull market needs three things: a pullback that doesn’t break, continuous ETF inflows, and the Fed truly turning. Right now, none of these have been fully confirmed.
Whether it’s a bull or not isn’t in a three-day candlestick chart; it’s in the structure two months from now. Just watch first—don’t be in a hurry. #比特币创2023年3月来最佳周表现 #TRUMP突破3.4美元创3月21日以来新高 #现货黄金创五月中旬以来新高
A big pancake in three days surged from 64,000 to 78,000; within 24 hours it liquidated 3.3 billion, and nine out of ten are “the air force.” On the square, people are already shouting “the bull is back,” but I suggest you don’t rush.
First, acknowledge the facts: this move really has something propping it up. The U.S. Treasury is repurchasing bonds and easing liquidity; big ETF inflows are putting in real money; and the shorts are packed tightly above 68,000—once you pull, they get squeezed and explode; the higher it goes, the more they explode—this is a classic short liquidation stampede, not pure FOMO.
But the problem is precisely here.
Shorts closing their positions is a one-time buy impulse; once the explosion is over, it’s gone. For the next leg, someone has to take over—and the person taking over needs conviction stronger than the “forced buying.” ETF inflows look great in a single day, but you need to see a few weeks in a row; the macro is only a short-term liquidity release, and the Fed hasn’t truly changed course yet. Price moving above the 200-day line doesn’t mean it has firmly held; fake breakouts are something we’ve seen too many times in this cycle. The daily RSI is already overbought—this kind of slope can’t keep climbing forever. If you chase it in the short term, you’re most likely the one catching the baton at the end.
Don’t chase the highs in the short term. The 80,000–82,000 area above is a strong resistance zone, packed with a large number of trapped holders. Below, 70,000–72,000 is the key line of defense—only if it holds do you have the right to talk about something higher. If it falls back below 69,000, then this is just a big rebound, not the start of a bull run.
A real bull market needs three things: a pullback that doesn’t break, continuous ETF inflows, and the Fed truly turning. Right now, none of these have been fully confirmed.
Whether it’s a bull or not isn’t in a three-day candlestick chart; it’s in the structure two months from now. Just watch first—don’t be in a hurry. #比特币创2023年3月来最佳周表现 #TRUMP突破3.4美元创3月21日以来新高 #现货黄金创五月中旬以来新高