After BTC breaks out, the real test is only just beginning
This latest leg of BTC’s rally has indeed been quite fierce. The current price is around $77,300, and it even surged to $79,194 during the day. In just a few days, it has broken through the prior consolidation range that had persisted for weeks.
But this move shouldn’t be simply understood as “a new bull market restart.” The main driver in the first phase is still short liquidations. With the market having built up a large number of short positions under low-volatility conditions, once BTC broke through a key level, in the following 24 hours roughly $2.7–$3.0 billion in short positions were liquidated. Forced buybacks, in turn, kept pushing the price higher.
What’s really worth watching is what comes after the short squeeze: spot capital stepping in. On August 20, U.S. spot BTC ETF net inflows were about $606 million, while ETH spot ETF net inflows were about $221 million—together nearly $826 million, as mentioned in the image. In the first four trading days of this week, BTC ETFs saw cumulative net inflows of about $1.6 billion.
Meanwhile, the U.S. Treasury expanded its purchases of long-term government bonds, the U.S. dollar weakened, and expectations for improved crypto regulation have also been supporting fresh buying of BTC, gold, and other inflation-hedging assets.
So going forward, don’t just focus on whether BTC can reach $80,000. The key is whether ETFs can continue to maintain net inflows. The short squeeze lifts the price, but spot capital determines how long it can hold.
If ETF inflows continue, this breakout could shift from a sentiment-driven move to a trend-driven one. If capital quickly fades, after a sharp rise of nearly 20%, a pullback is also perfectly normal.
Chasing higher prices now may not feel comfortable, but shorting blindly based on last cycle’s bearish mindset could carry even greater risk. #比特币创2023年3月来最佳周表现 $BTC
This latest leg of BTC’s rally has indeed been quite fierce. The current price is around $77,300, and it even surged to $79,194 during the day. In just a few days, it has broken through the prior consolidation range that had persisted for weeks.
But this move shouldn’t be simply understood as “a new bull market restart.” The main driver in the first phase is still short liquidations. With the market having built up a large number of short positions under low-volatility conditions, once BTC broke through a key level, in the following 24 hours roughly $2.7–$3.0 billion in short positions were liquidated. Forced buybacks, in turn, kept pushing the price higher.
What’s really worth watching is what comes after the short squeeze: spot capital stepping in. On August 20, U.S. spot BTC ETF net inflows were about $606 million, while ETH spot ETF net inflows were about $221 million—together nearly $826 million, as mentioned in the image. In the first four trading days of this week, BTC ETFs saw cumulative net inflows of about $1.6 billion.
Meanwhile, the U.S. Treasury expanded its purchases of long-term government bonds, the U.S. dollar weakened, and expectations for improved crypto regulation have also been supporting fresh buying of BTC, gold, and other inflation-hedging assets.
So going forward, don’t just focus on whether BTC can reach $80,000. The key is whether ETFs can continue to maintain net inflows. The short squeeze lifts the price, but spot capital determines how long it can hold.
If ETF inflows continue, this breakout could shift from a sentiment-driven move to a trend-driven one. If capital quickly fades, after a sharp rise of nearly 20%, a pullback is also perfectly normal.
Chasing higher prices now may not feel comfortable, but shorting blindly based on last cycle’s bearish mindset could carry even greater risk. #比特币创2023年3月来最佳周表现 $BTC