【The peak of a bull market is never called the peak of a bull market—it's called "This time is different"】
In December 2017 and in November 2021, whenever top players liquidated, the market kept shouting, "This time is different." Now we’re at this point again.
ETH is up nearly 30% over the past seven days, and yesterday it was another +2.8%. I won’t recite the data—you can see it yourselves. What I want to talk about is something else:
Within 48 hours, institutions have poured nearly $2 billion into this market through ETFs. Bitcoin spot ETFs have attracted more than $600 million, and the Ethereum ETF has recorded its largest single-day inflow since October. In just two days, the net positions liquidated across the whole network on the short side were about $2.2 billion—the previous record was in 2021.
This isn’t retail investors charging in. This is institutions running onto the field.
FNG is already at 71, while the weekly average is only 51. I won’t give the exact funding rate numbers, but the insiders all know what that means.
I’ve been through four cycles. I’ve seen too many people go all-in with leverage at times like this, thinking, "Institutions are in, so what is there to be afraid of?" What happened then?
ETH is still about halfway away from its all-time high. Sounds like a value zone, right? But what a deep correction zone implies is—there may still be a long road ahead.
What does this, in practical terms, mean?
Institutions don’t come in to liberate retail investors. What they want is certainty of returns. Once the ETF’s scale reaches a certain level, any major volatility will trigger a chain reaction of risk controls. You think you’re catching the bottom—but you might actually be catching the institutions’ stop-loss orders.
I’m not arguing the logic for being bearish on ETH. RWA, staking, Layer2—these stories I do recognize. But at this position, this sentiment, and this leverage level, either reduce your exposure or set up hedges—don’t go long unhedged.
So what’s your plan to deal with this time?
In December 2017 and in November 2021, whenever top players liquidated, the market kept shouting, "This time is different." Now we’re at this point again.
ETH is up nearly 30% over the past seven days, and yesterday it was another +2.8%. I won’t recite the data—you can see it yourselves. What I want to talk about is something else:
Within 48 hours, institutions have poured nearly $2 billion into this market through ETFs. Bitcoin spot ETFs have attracted more than $600 million, and the Ethereum ETF has recorded its largest single-day inflow since October. In just two days, the net positions liquidated across the whole network on the short side were about $2.2 billion—the previous record was in 2021.
This isn’t retail investors charging in. This is institutions running onto the field.
FNG is already at 71, while the weekly average is only 51. I won’t give the exact funding rate numbers, but the insiders all know what that means.
I’ve been through four cycles. I’ve seen too many people go all-in with leverage at times like this, thinking, "Institutions are in, so what is there to be afraid of?" What happened then?
ETH is still about halfway away from its all-time high. Sounds like a value zone, right? But what a deep correction zone implies is—there may still be a long road ahead.
What does this, in practical terms, mean?
Institutions don’t come in to liberate retail investors. What they want is certainty of returns. Once the ETF’s scale reaches a certain level, any major volatility will trigger a chain reaction of risk controls. You think you’re catching the bottom—but you might actually be catching the institutions’ stop-loss orders.
I’m not arguing the logic for being bearish on ETH. RWA, staking, Layer2—these stories I do recognize. But at this position, this sentiment, and this leverage level, either reduce your exposure or set up hedges—don’t go long unhedged.
So what’s your plan to deal with this time?