Bitcoin 2026 (3/3): How far could BTC go by year-end?
Trying to predict an exact Bitcoin price would be unserious.
What’s most useful is to work with scenarios and probabilities.
🔴 Bear case: USD 55,000–65,000
It could happen if inflation rises again, the Federal Reserve tightens its monetary policy, bond yields increase, or there are strong outflows from the ETFs.
In that scenario, BTC would likely suffer again due to restrictive financial conditions.
🟡 Base case: USD 85,000–95,000
Right now, I consider this range much more reasonable if inflation continues to cool, the Fed avoids further aggressive hikes, and the ETFs maintain positive inflows.
My central reference would be around USD 90,000 by the end of 2026.
🟢 Bull case: USD 105,000–120,000
To clearly move back above USD 100,000, we would probably need a stronger mix:
• strong institutional buying;
• liquidity expansion;
• lower bond yields;
• favorable regulation;
• a weaker dollar;
• a technical breakout accompanied by volume.
The most important variable won’t simply be that BTC breaks above a resistance.
It will be who is buying that breakout.
If the move is supported by the spot market and ETFs, it will matter far more than a rise dominated by derivatives and leverage.
For now, my base scenario remains around USD 85,000–95,000.
We shouldn’t fall in love with the target.
We must update it when the data changes.
Risk management and intelligence.
Trying to predict an exact Bitcoin price would be unserious.
What’s most useful is to work with scenarios and probabilities.
🔴 Bear case: USD 55,000–65,000
It could happen if inflation rises again, the Federal Reserve tightens its monetary policy, bond yields increase, or there are strong outflows from the ETFs.
In that scenario, BTC would likely suffer again due to restrictive financial conditions.
🟡 Base case: USD 85,000–95,000
Right now, I consider this range much more reasonable if inflation continues to cool, the Fed avoids further aggressive hikes, and the ETFs maintain positive inflows.
My central reference would be around USD 90,000 by the end of 2026.
🟢 Bull case: USD 105,000–120,000
To clearly move back above USD 100,000, we would probably need a stronger mix:
• strong institutional buying;
• liquidity expansion;
• lower bond yields;
• favorable regulation;
• a weaker dollar;
• a technical breakout accompanied by volume.
The most important variable won’t simply be that BTC breaks above a resistance.
It will be who is buying that breakout.
If the move is supported by the spot market and ETFs, it will matter far more than a rise dominated by derivatives and leverage.
For now, my base scenario remains around USD 85,000–95,000.
We shouldn’t fall in love with the target.
We must update it when the data changes.
Risk management and intelligence.
