January 30th, Black Friday, subsequent market analysis and operational suggestions
Overnight to the white盘 market welcomed a deep pullback of over 10,000 points. In the early morning, Bitcoin quickly plunged from a high of 90,600 to around 83,300, with a maximum daily drop of over 7,300 points. Ethereum also retreated from the 3,000 mark to around 2,750, with a drop of 250 points. Currently, there is a clear shift in market liquidity, with a large amount of capital leaving the crypto space and flowing into the precious metals sector. The collective sell-off of risk assets has become the core inducement for this round of pullback, and market risk aversion sentiment has fully intensified. The short position strategy precisely laid out in the previous evening's market perfectly matched this round of decline, with significant gains from real-time positioning. Bitcoin short positions gained nearly 5,000 points in profit, while Ethereum shorts also achieved a 240-point return, successfully capturing this trend-based decline opportunity.
The daily chart shows a clear downward break, with prices accelerating downwards after breaking through key short-term support. The previous trading day recorded a large bearish candlestick, and the day opened with a continuation of weakness testing the lower support. The Bollinger Bands are expanding, short-term moving averages are in a bearish arrangement, MACD's fast and slow lines are deeply extending downwards, and the volume bars continue to increase. KDJ, after repairing, has once again diverged in a death cross, and the VR indicator is hovering around the neutral position of 100, with no clear reversal signal yet. The current price is oscillating narrowly around 83,000 USD. After probing down to 81,000 USD in the early session, a technical rebound was triggered, but it faced resistance at the 83,000 USD level and entered a range. The continuous breaking of key levels is driven by the fermentation of negative policies and panic selling in the market.
The four-hour cycle shows a weak rebound pattern after a break down, with prices piercing the lower Bollinger Band and deeply testing below. Although it has rebounded back to the upper band, upward momentum is lacking. The Bollinger Bands maintain a downward opening, short-term moving averages are under pressure, MACD is descending in a death cross, and the volume bars confirm the selling pressure. KDJ has flattened after bottoming and the rebound momentum is weak. The VR indicator is hovering at a low of 60, with no signs of stabilization. Overall, it is a panic-style downward market. After breaking the 90,000 level, the rebound has not stabilized, and multiple supports have been broken consecutively, with continued bearish signals released from the technical perspective. Short-term reference support is at 80,000 USD, with a focus on the resistance below 85,000 USD above. If the rebound encounters resistance, it can serve as a secondary short positioning signal.
Short-term operational suggestions:
$BTC : Short near 84,200-84,500, target: around 81,000-80,000
$ETH : Short near 2,780-2,900, target: around 2,680-2,700
