$BTC After experiencing a drop in tech stocks triggered by Microsoft on Friday, and a comprehensive drop in precious metals led by silver futures on Saturday, it once fell below 81,000, approaching the integer barrier of 80,000 due to the looming war between the U.S. and Iran.
When hearing the number 80,000, does it remind everyone of something?
MicroStrategy's average BTC cost, right!
The cost price is said to be $75,026, while another source says it's $76,037, but this does not affect the conclusion.
You might think that BTC hasn't even broken MicroStrategy's cost line yet! What problems could arise?
Am I, the author, worrying too early?
But the problem is that even if it hasn't fallen below the cost line, the current price has already caused MicroStrategy to start incurring losses.
Here is an excerpt from a recent media report:
Due to the withdrawal of Bitcoin from its peak, Strategy disclosed up to $17.44 billion in unrealized losses on digital assets in its Q4 2025 financial report. By the end of 2025, the book value of its digital assets was approximately $58.85 billion.
To alleviate market concerns about its cash flow depletion and debt repayment capability, the company established a cash reserve of $2.25 billion through the sale of common stock, attempting to build a moat in this capital winter.
When BTC was still above $90,000, MicroStrategy had already started recording unrealized losses on digital assets, but what about now with the price at $81,000 on January 31? A mere $2.25 billion in cash is not enough for their usual expenditure on BTC over three months; is this really enough to serve as a moat?
This person known as the Bitcoin Jesus, Michael Saylor, I have always believed that his approach to BTC is not safe at all, buying BTC by issuing and selling stocks to continuously increase holdings, thereby boosting the company's valuation. This works when BTC rises, but what happens when it falls? Many, many people have asked this question over the past few years, but they have been vigorously refuted and dodged by his followers. How can he be called the Bitcoin Jesus?
Jesus is a saint who suffers on behalf of the world, not a hypocrite who leads the world to suffer!
Is it wrong to borrow money to invest? No, but you need to have healthy cash flow! Does MicroStrategy have that? Who still remembers that MicroStrategy is a provider of intelligent software? Not many people, as the company has not had any significant breakthroughs in its main business for a long time, and MicroStrategy's current value is completely supported by BTC, let alone the AI sector, which also has an unclear outlook.
And if issuing stocks doesn't work, can they still obtain large amounts of financing? Unless the government saves them.
Now, with the markets (except for the cryptocurrency space) at historical highs, leveraged trading must be approached with extreme caution
The fragility of people's confidence in the market has been starkly revealed by Friday's sharp drop in Microsoft's stock and Saturday's sharp drop in silver futures. MicroStrategy holds over 710,000 BTC, making it the largest holder of BTC besides the BTC spot ETF (approximately 1.32 million BTC). If a sudden event leads to a continuous decline in BTC, remaining below $75,000 for several weeks will drain MicroStrategy's cash flow. At that point, whether MicroStrategy chooses to sell BTC for cash or directly seek bankruptcy restructuring, it will lead to
Liquidity in the cryptocurrency market has been instantly drained
The crash of the spot ETF has affected US stock market liquidity, causing funds to move towards safe-haven assets, triggering a collective decline in US stocks.
The decline in the US stock market has triggered a chain reaction of declines in stock markets around the world
The worst-case scenario may not necessarily happen, but everyone must think ahead and strictly set stop-loss points to minimize losses when it does occur. After all, if such a large amount of BTC unfortunately appears on the market, the resulting crisis could be even greater than the FTX and 1011 incidents combined. I can only sincerely pray that bad things do not happen, or that I am prepared if they do!