Ahr999 “bottom-picking” indicator is still impressive—it precisely caught Bitcoin’s price bottom.
When the blue line drops to 0.45 a few times, it’s basically always in BTC’s deep bear market zone, and the signal quality is quite solid.
Of course, we can’t blindly worship indicators. In 2025, almost all top-calling indicators failed.
As Bitcoin’s market value grows and narratives change, historical data can only serve as a reference. Forcing yourself to “stick to the past” carries a very high risk of overfitting.
That said, relatively speaking, whether it’s AHR999 or indicators like MVRV, NUPL, and Puell, bottom-finding works better than top-calling!
Bottoms often have to go through something more stable:
- A large number of investors are in losses
- Leverage gets liquidated
- Speculative demand disappears
- The share of long-term holders increases
- Price approaches the long-term cost region
- Marginal selling pressure gradually runs out
Whereas tops are harder to predict. Any positive catalyst can pull the price up, and the bubble may last longer than you think.
Therefore, it’s recommended to treat these on-chain indicators as left-side buy tools—not right-side top-calling tools.
The old “top-calling magic” wasn’t that magical at all—this is a deep lesson I learned in the last cycle.
Stay in awe!
$BTC #比特币创2023年3月来最佳周表现
When the blue line drops to 0.45 a few times, it’s basically always in BTC’s deep bear market zone, and the signal quality is quite solid.
Of course, we can’t blindly worship indicators. In 2025, almost all top-calling indicators failed.
As Bitcoin’s market value grows and narratives change, historical data can only serve as a reference. Forcing yourself to “stick to the past” carries a very high risk of overfitting.
That said, relatively speaking, whether it’s AHR999 or indicators like MVRV, NUPL, and Puell, bottom-finding works better than top-calling!
Bottoms often have to go through something more stable:
- A large number of investors are in losses
- Leverage gets liquidated
- Speculative demand disappears
- The share of long-term holders increases
- Price approaches the long-term cost region
- Marginal selling pressure gradually runs out
Whereas tops are harder to predict. Any positive catalyst can pull the price up, and the bubble may last longer than you think.
Therefore, it’s recommended to treat these on-chain indicators as left-side buy tools—not right-side top-calling tools.
The old “top-calling magic” wasn’t that magical at all—this is a deep lesson I learned in the last cycle.
Stay in awe!
$BTC #比特币创2023年3月来最佳周表现
