Let me talk about my current thoughts briefly.
1. Trump issuing coins: even if he does issue them, it will most likely be his relatives or family members who do it.
Reference what happened before with Milei’s case—Trump’s wife’s coin. This time, even if it’s issued, if it doesn’t go up within the first half hour after the market opens, it feels like the odds are basically that you’ll lose money. So if you see it early, you can try playing around. As for the whole coin-issuing matter, my combined probability estimate is about 15%. I think.
2. For the secondary market and the long-term view: I still don’t believe that 60k is the bottom of this round. Yes, it’s possible, but based on my experience, the probability might be only around 30%. Then for the short term over these next few days: it feels like the storyline will soon include a quick dip downward, but it will be quickly pulled back afterward. After that, the bias is still down.
3. On-chain: overall, there really aren’t many things you can play in August. In the middle, CZ did evil, and then many other distractions popped up, which lowered expectations for buying coins a lot. A few days ago I saw how insanely strong Bull was, and then I thought about betting that Old Wu would make a run like Long’er—but even a 1M couldn’t hold steady. Basically it was just Bull as the lone standout. A so-called fake bull market, still. So these days I’m making fewer moves. Yesterday basecat was observing it, so going forward, pay more attention to diversifying across other chains.
1. Trump issuing coins: even if he does issue them, it will most likely be his relatives or family members who do it.
Reference what happened before with Milei’s case—Trump’s wife’s coin. This time, even if it’s issued, if it doesn’t go up within the first half hour after the market opens, it feels like the odds are basically that you’ll lose money. So if you see it early, you can try playing around. As for the whole coin-issuing matter, my combined probability estimate is about 15%. I think.
2. For the secondary market and the long-term view: I still don’t believe that 60k is the bottom of this round. Yes, it’s possible, but based on my experience, the probability might be only around 30%. Then for the short term over these next few days: it feels like the storyline will soon include a quick dip downward, but it will be quickly pulled back afterward. After that, the bias is still down.
3. On-chain: overall, there really aren’t many things you can play in August. In the middle, CZ did evil, and then many other distractions popped up, which lowered expectations for buying coins a lot. A few days ago I saw how insanely strong Bull was, and then I thought about betting that Old Wu would make a run like Long’er—but even a 1M couldn’t hold steady. Basically it was just Bull as the lone standout. A so-called fake bull market, still. So these days I’m making fewer moves. Yesterday basecat was observing it, so going forward, pay more attention to diversifying across other chains.