#美国炼油商面临原油供应下滑
For the US refining industry, the core contradiction is **“refineries are strong, but crude oil supply and logistics are constrained.”**
Refinery utilization is nearing its limit: as of the week ending August 14, US refinery utilization rose to 97.2%, with crude oil processing of about 17.4 million barrels per day.
Crude oil imports are declining: during the week, US crude oil import volumes fell by roughly 746,000 barrels per day to 6.6 million barrels per day, while exports increased by 1.0 million barrels per day to 4.1 million barrels per day, meaning the pressure on available crude oil supply for refineries has risen noticeably.
Global supply remains tight: the IEA expects that in 2026 global oil supply will decline year-on-year by about 4.3 million barrels per day, with supply disruptions in the Middle East still being the main drag.
Yet refined product margins are very high: at one point, the US diesel crack spread broke above $100 per barrel—an all-time high—indicating that refiners currently have strong pricing power.
The inventory structure is noteworthy: US commercial crude oil inventories actually increased by 4.4 million barrels, but distillate inventories fell by 1.5 million barrels and were 13% below the five-year seasonal average. This suggests that the true tightness may lie more in the refined product supply chain than in the absolute availability of crude oil within the US.
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$SNDK Trading Strategy [Long-term long positions, not intraday trading]
Long Position 1
After 1,617 stabilizes, open a long.
Stop loss: 1,591
Target 1: around 1,820—scale out or take profit
Target 2: around 1,860—scale out or take profit
Long Position 2
After 1,545 stabilizes, open a long.
Stop loss: 1,519
Target 1: around 1,745—scale out or take profit
Target 2: around 1,780—scale out or take profit
【👇Click below to start trading👇】
For the US refining industry, the core contradiction is **“refineries are strong, but crude oil supply and logistics are constrained.”**
Refinery utilization is nearing its limit: as of the week ending August 14, US refinery utilization rose to 97.2%, with crude oil processing of about 17.4 million barrels per day.
Crude oil imports are declining: during the week, US crude oil import volumes fell by roughly 746,000 barrels per day to 6.6 million barrels per day, while exports increased by 1.0 million barrels per day to 4.1 million barrels per day, meaning the pressure on available crude oil supply for refineries has risen noticeably.
Global supply remains tight: the IEA expects that in 2026 global oil supply will decline year-on-year by about 4.3 million barrels per day, with supply disruptions in the Middle East still being the main drag.
Yet refined product margins are very high: at one point, the US diesel crack spread broke above $100 per barrel—an all-time high—indicating that refiners currently have strong pricing power.
The inventory structure is noteworthy: US commercial crude oil inventories actually increased by 4.4 million barrels, but distillate inventories fell by 1.5 million barrels and were 13% below the five-year seasonal average. This suggests that the true tightness may lie more in the refined product supply chain than in the absolute availability of crude oil within the US.
--------------
$SNDK Trading Strategy [Long-term long positions, not intraday trading]
Long Position 1
After 1,617 stabilizes, open a long.
Stop loss: 1,591
Target 1: around 1,820—scale out or take profit
Target 2: around 1,860—scale out or take profit
Long Position 2
After 1,545 stabilizes, open a long.
Stop loss: 1,519
Target 1: around 1,745—scale out or take profit
Target 2: around 1,780—scale out or take profit
【👇Click below to start trading👇】