BTC reaches $77,837, up 3% over the past 24 hours. This week, it surged from $62,800 and broke above $78,000, for a cumulative gain of 22%. The real three key drivers: the U.S. Treasury doubles the cap on long-term bond buybacks; Trump’s White House meets with crypto executives urging Congress to advance the CLARITY Act; and $2.7 billion in short positions is squeezed, creating a self-reinforcing upward loop. Spot ETF net inflows on August 20 were $606 million, with $1.61 billion accumulated over four days. The Fear & Greed Index is 71 (in the Greed zone). The RSI is at 77.8 and has entered overbought territory. But note—Fed Chair Waller is hawkish. The Jackson Hole remarks are not until August 28, and the 36.2% probability of a September rate hike remains an overhead risk.
Crypto recommendations
BTC
Now: $77,837 | +3% over 24 hours | +22% over the week | Composite score 76/100
Forecast: bullish. 3-day target: $80,000-$84,000. After BTC breaks above $78,000 and holds above the 50- and 200-day moving averages, the structural bullish trend is confirmed. Support comes from the Treasury share buyback + the CLARITY Act + ETF inflows, with $84,000 as the next resistance.
Rationale: improved liquidity + policy catalysts + short-squeeze momentum continues.
Risks: RSI 77.8 is overbought, and the Fear Index is in the 71 “greed” zone. After a 22% consecutive rise, downside pullback pressure is high. A hawkish tone is a looming risk; ahead of the Aug 28 speech, profit-taking may occur. $71,500 is a short-term defense level.
ETH
Now: $2,510 | +7.3% over 24 hours | Composite score 78/100
Forecast: bullish. 3-day target: $2,600-$2,700. ETH’s weekly gain is leading the move and a break above the $2,500 key level is key. Improved liquidity is positive for on-chain assets, and staking/locked deposits provide structural support.
Rationale: improved liquidity + higher on-chain activity + ETF inflows.
Risks: The rally is happening too fast. If BTC pulls back, ETH could also retreat. Defend at $2,350.
SOL
Now: $93.92 | +6.3% over 24 hours | Composite score 74/100
Forecast: bullish. 3-day target: $98-$102. SOL holding above $90, and the narrative that DEX transaction volume is surpassing Ethereum is strengthening the case for the ecosystem’s continued activity.
Rationale: ecosystem narrative + liquidity tailwinds + follow-through on the rebound.
Risks: If BTC retraces, SOL may also pull back to $85.88 as a defense level.
US stock recommendations
COIN
Now: Up 8%. Large crypto exchange leaders benefit from the burst in market activity.
Forecast: bullish, with strength continuing over the next 3 days. The burst in crypto activity directly benefits trading volumes; Coinbase, as a leading regulated exchange, benefits. The advancement of the CLARITY Act reduces regulatory uncertainty.
Rationale: market surge + regulatory tailwinds + rising trading volumes.
Risks: If the market pulls back, COIN’s downside elasticity would also be amplified.
MSTR
Now: Up 6%, with premium recovery for the BTC leverage exposure.
Forecast: bullish. 3-day target to follow BTC’s upside. After BTC broke above $78,000, MSTR’s unrealized gains on its holdings saw a significant recovery, and the mNAV premium rate rebounded.
Rationale: BTC surged + premium recovered + leverage provides strong upside elasticity.
Risks: If BTC pulls back, MSTR’s volatility will be higher.
MU
Now: The storage-chip main theme continues, with HBM in tight supply.
Forecast: bullish, with the strong trend continuing over the next 3 days. The HBM capacity gap is still about 50%-60%, and AI server demand is driving the storage cycle higher. Micron, as a core HBM supplier, has strong upside potential.
Rationale: HBM tight supply + the storage cycle + AI demand.
Risks: Storage price cycles can be volatile. If AI capex cools, it may pull back.
(Ice Fire Island Research Daily | 2026-08-22)