$HOOD Binance US stocks perpetuals 24-hour surge 13.5%. The reason was two remarks Robinhood CEO Vlad Tenev made at the CFTC in person; it can’t be simply filed under “earnings.” One is clearer, permanent crypto rules—so investors don’t have to fear regulators changing their stance when governments change hands. The other is a prediction that prediction markets will survive no matter how the Supreme Court rules; at most, the industry will adjust its approach.
There’s no new document mentioned in the words, but he effectively highlighted both revenue expectations at once: the compliance boundaries for the crypto business, and whether prediction market revenue will be cut directly by the ruling. The market first removes uncertainty from prices, and perpetual contracts then reprice accordingly.
The rally is fast, and buy-side demand hasn’t caught up. The share of aggressive buying is only 26%; in six hours, aggressive trades shrank by 47%. OI over six hours is only +0.2%, with fees essentially at 0. Even though the price jumped 13.5%, newly added open interest barely moved. I’m going to treat this as sentiment-driven repricing; I won’t bet on the persistence of any outcome before the documents are actually finalized.
There’s no new document mentioned in the words, but he effectively highlighted both revenue expectations at once: the compliance boundaries for the crypto business, and whether prediction market revenue will be cut directly by the ruling. The market first removes uncertainty from prices, and perpetual contracts then reprice accordingly.
The rally is fast, and buy-side demand hasn’t caught up. The share of aggressive buying is only 26%; in six hours, aggressive trades shrank by 47%. OI over six hours is only +0.2%, with fees essentially at 0. Even though the price jumped 13.5%, newly added open interest barely moved. I’m going to treat this as sentiment-driven repricing; I won’t bet on the persistence of any outcome before the documents are actually finalized.