NEAR is now around 1.9u. In three days it has climbed from 1.56 by a quarter, sticking right up against the highs of this cycle—right on the top of the forehead. And there are still people shouting, “Break out, take off—quick, get on the train!”—hold on, don’t get carried away. Let’s not say it in a way that commits: I recognize that the direction is bullish, but at this spot, I’m not chasing.
This is real money. In the spot market, over a three-hour window, there were 12 candles—none missing—all of them net inflows. Big orders came in batch after batch; whales have already compressed long positions to 80% and they’re still adding on. Over seven hours, they added nearly another 10% of long positions. As for derivatives, open interest rose by more than 10% in a day again. The “strong bull quadrant” is directly stamped—this isn’t talk, it’s a show of real cash.
But the plate is small, and sentiment is already one-sided. In the plaza, you can’t even find one out of the hundred-plus posts that are bearish; the whole AI-agent narrative has gotten hot again—once it gets sparked, it catches.
However, there’s a problem here: the price is shoved right up against the cycle high, and all the short-term indicators are in the overheated zone. The fee rate is still pinned at 0.01 and hasn’t gone crazy—this is good in principle. But in the spot market, in the last ten-odd minutes, someone has already started distributing at the high level. Chasing in here is no different from pushing the sedan carried by others.
My play is one line: the direction is up, but wait for a pullback. Don’t touch it while it’s pressed to the high; only get on the train after the pullback doesn’t break down. That attitude feels a lot better than it does right now.
#near $NEAR
This is real money. In the spot market, over a three-hour window, there were 12 candles—none missing—all of them net inflows. Big orders came in batch after batch; whales have already compressed long positions to 80% and they’re still adding on. Over seven hours, they added nearly another 10% of long positions. As for derivatives, open interest rose by more than 10% in a day again. The “strong bull quadrant” is directly stamped—this isn’t talk, it’s a show of real cash.
But the plate is small, and sentiment is already one-sided. In the plaza, you can’t even find one out of the hundred-plus posts that are bearish; the whole AI-agent narrative has gotten hot again—once it gets sparked, it catches.
However, there’s a problem here: the price is shoved right up against the cycle high, and all the short-term indicators are in the overheated zone. The fee rate is still pinned at 0.01 and hasn’t gone crazy—this is good in principle. But in the spot market, in the last ten-odd minutes, someone has already started distributing at the high level. Chasing in here is no different from pushing the sedan carried by others.
My play is one line: the direction is up, but wait for a pullback. Don’t touch it while it’s pressed to the high; only get on the train after the pullback doesn’t break down. That attitude feels a lot better than it does right now.
#near $NEAR