TermMax: What worries me most recently isn’t that there aren’t many activities—it’s that the activities are so good at creating the feeling of “so many people.”
@TermMax The data it published is indeed impressive: 1.5M+ registered wallets, 90K+ DAU, 10 EVM chains, and a TGE on August 25. Looking further back at the campaigns, the RLUSD deposit campaign directly put out 5 million TMX, Binance W3W’s two rounds of tasks gave 200K XP, and the Venus collaboration even reached 120X XP.
From an operations perspective, I’d actually like to ask one question: are these people truly TermMax users, or are they just users of the rewards?
Because the task paths are now very clear: check-in, posting, Borrow, Earn, inviting, and then farming XP/AP/MP. Users are designed to be very good at “completing actions.” But completing actions and building usage habits are two completely different things. The official says TVL is already 90M+, but DeFiLlama’s recent figures are roughly only 32M, and the protocol fees over the past 7 days are also less than $1,000. The numbers may differ due to different methodologies, but this gap is at least worth keeping an eye on.
Especially after August 25—that’s when the real operational test begins.
Once the RLUSD rewards end, once the W3W XP is distributed, and once Venus’s high-multiplier points are gone, will users proactively come back to borrow, lend, and do fixed-rate trades? If activity drops along with incentives, then those previous 1.5 million wallets are more like a beautiful customer-acquisition report—not a retention report.
I’m not actually afraid of TermMax spending money to attract users. DeFi cold starts do require subsidies. What I fear is that the project mistakes “having done tasks” for “having already educated users.”
A TGE can bring a burst of traffic, but what’s truly valuable is how many people come back a month later without relying on points.
I think this number matters far more than the number of registered wallets.
#TermMax $TermMax @TermMax
@TermMax The data it published is indeed impressive: 1.5M+ registered wallets, 90K+ DAU, 10 EVM chains, and a TGE on August 25. Looking further back at the campaigns, the RLUSD deposit campaign directly put out 5 million TMX, Binance W3W’s two rounds of tasks gave 200K XP, and the Venus collaboration even reached 120X XP.
From an operations perspective, I’d actually like to ask one question: are these people truly TermMax users, or are they just users of the rewards?
Because the task paths are now very clear: check-in, posting, Borrow, Earn, inviting, and then farming XP/AP/MP. Users are designed to be very good at “completing actions.” But completing actions and building usage habits are two completely different things. The official says TVL is already 90M+, but DeFiLlama’s recent figures are roughly only 32M, and the protocol fees over the past 7 days are also less than $1,000. The numbers may differ due to different methodologies, but this gap is at least worth keeping an eye on.
Especially after August 25—that’s when the real operational test begins.
Once the RLUSD rewards end, once the W3W XP is distributed, and once Venus’s high-multiplier points are gone, will users proactively come back to borrow, lend, and do fixed-rate trades? If activity drops along with incentives, then those previous 1.5 million wallets are more like a beautiful customer-acquisition report—not a retention report.
I’m not actually afraid of TermMax spending money to attract users. DeFi cold starts do require subsidies. What I fear is that the project mistakes “having done tasks” for “having already educated users.”
A TGE can bring a burst of traffic, but what’s truly valuable is how many people come back a month later without relying on points.
I think this number matters far more than the number of registered wallets.
#TermMax $TermMax @TermMax