MU is now around 964. After it pulled back from the recent high near 990, these two days have just been grinding under the moving-average line—when it rebounds, it hasn’t even managed to catch its breath.
First, the takeaway: I won’t chase here, and I won’t short either. This is just a wait-for-direction situation.
It looks like it’s trying not to fall, but the problem is in the money. The contract open interest shrank by nearly 8% in a day, and in just seven hours it shrank again by another slice. The price hasn’t moved much, but the positions have been withdrawn. This kind of combination of sideways movement plus adding/reducing positions is, in plain terms, capital shifting outward. The funding/fees flipping positive—by roughly the same amount as zero—doesn’t matter. Out of 8 sampling points, only 2 are positive, so neither the longs nor the shorts have really gained an advantage.
But when you look at the aggressive order flow the other way, it’s still off. The proportion of aggressive buy orders in contracts is up to nearly 60%, with buy volume pressing down on sell volume. Meanwhile, in big-account data, the long-side account share is 65%, and over those seven hours they’re still adding. Yet the spot order book is slightly thicker on the sell side—the 20-level buy/sell ratio is under 0.8.
So you have capital retreating on one side, while aggressive buys and big players still keep propping up the longs on the other. This market is kind of twisted right now—don’t rush to pick a side. Only when open interest is replenished back and the price holds above the moving averages would it be a true turn to strength. If positions keep shrinking and aggressive buys also withdraw, don’t expect thick support underneath.
At this spot, chasing higher is basically giving a lift to the people looking to reduce risk; shorting too urgently is also risky because you might get pressed back by the longs’ momentum. I’ll watch for now and wait for the funds to choose their own side.
#mu $MU
First, the takeaway: I won’t chase here, and I won’t short either. This is just a wait-for-direction situation.
It looks like it’s trying not to fall, but the problem is in the money. The contract open interest shrank by nearly 8% in a day, and in just seven hours it shrank again by another slice. The price hasn’t moved much, but the positions have been withdrawn. This kind of combination of sideways movement plus adding/reducing positions is, in plain terms, capital shifting outward. The funding/fees flipping positive—by roughly the same amount as zero—doesn’t matter. Out of 8 sampling points, only 2 are positive, so neither the longs nor the shorts have really gained an advantage.
But when you look at the aggressive order flow the other way, it’s still off. The proportion of aggressive buy orders in contracts is up to nearly 60%, with buy volume pressing down on sell volume. Meanwhile, in big-account data, the long-side account share is 65%, and over those seven hours they’re still adding. Yet the spot order book is slightly thicker on the sell side—the 20-level buy/sell ratio is under 0.8.
So you have capital retreating on one side, while aggressive buys and big players still keep propping up the longs on the other. This market is kind of twisted right now—don’t rush to pick a side. Only when open interest is replenished back and the price holds above the moving averages would it be a true turn to strength. If positions keep shrinking and aggressive buys also withdraw, don’t expect thick support underneath.
At this spot, chasing higher is basically giving a lift to the people looking to reduce risk; shorting too urgently is also risky because you might get pressed back by the longs’ momentum. I’ll watch for now and wait for the funds to choose their own side.
#mu $MU