Everyone seems to be counting down to the TGE on the 25th, but I’m calculating another, harsher moment: after the 26th subsidy payments stop, what exactly does @TermMax face—retention or a stampede?
The official X account’s daily battle reports are certainly flashy: total locked-in value smashing past $90 million, wallet count over 1.5 million, and daily active users slightly above 90,000. At first glance the scale is astonishing, but the detail that gives the truth away is the 6% daily active rate. For people in the know, those 1.5 million addresses can’t really be called a “user base.” How many are actually workers running studios, and how many are disposable shells used once and abandoned?
Once you break down the marketing cadence before it, the truth becomes obvious—the subsidy intensity is downright insane. The RLUSD pool splashes out 5 million TMX, partners with Venus to produce a 120X points multiplier, Binance’s Web3 wallet hands out 200,000 XP directly, and near token launch it throws in another 2 million TMX for the final push. Under this barrage of dopamine-reward mechanisms, it’s no wonder people mechanically grind interactions—how could the numbers not explode?
But the side effect of this drug-like growth is simple: when the “high” stops, will people still move?
$BTC
A 48-hour RLUSD mining pool pulling in $20 million is enough to show the bloodthirsty nature of capital. But what I want to see more is this: after the tide recedes—7 days, 30 days later—how much is left in the bottom pools? When XP and MP no longer come with any promise of monetization, how much of the capital truly believes this fixed-income setup is useful and stays voluntarily?
If there’s no expectation of an air drop, and this lending model can still retain real money, it means TermMax has already grown its own moat and escaped the loop of “farming for rewards.” On the other hand, if every rally depends on the official bleeding out funds, then those 1.5 million wallets are nothing more than PR numbers dressing up the situation—no real commercial barriers at all.
With TGE right around the corner, I actually think the biggest thing TermMax needs to prove next isn’t its ability to attract new users, but rather this: what can you do to stop these old addresses from withdrawing capital.
#TermMax
The official X account’s daily battle reports are certainly flashy: total locked-in value smashing past $90 million, wallet count over 1.5 million, and daily active users slightly above 90,000. At first glance the scale is astonishing, but the detail that gives the truth away is the 6% daily active rate. For people in the know, those 1.5 million addresses can’t really be called a “user base.” How many are actually workers running studios, and how many are disposable shells used once and abandoned?
Once you break down the marketing cadence before it, the truth becomes obvious—the subsidy intensity is downright insane. The RLUSD pool splashes out 5 million TMX, partners with Venus to produce a 120X points multiplier, Binance’s Web3 wallet hands out 200,000 XP directly, and near token launch it throws in another 2 million TMX for the final push. Under this barrage of dopamine-reward mechanisms, it’s no wonder people mechanically grind interactions—how could the numbers not explode?
But the side effect of this drug-like growth is simple: when the “high” stops, will people still move?
$BTC
A 48-hour RLUSD mining pool pulling in $20 million is enough to show the bloodthirsty nature of capital. But what I want to see more is this: after the tide recedes—7 days, 30 days later—how much is left in the bottom pools? When XP and MP no longer come with any promise of monetization, how much of the capital truly believes this fixed-income setup is useful and stays voluntarily?
If there’s no expectation of an air drop, and this lending model can still retain real money, it means TermMax has already grown its own moat and escaped the loop of “farming for rewards.” On the other hand, if every rally depends on the official bleeding out funds, then those 1.5 million wallets are nothing more than PR numbers dressing up the situation—no real commercial barriers at all.
With TGE right around the corner, I actually think the biggest thing TermMax needs to prove next isn’t its ability to attract new users, but rather this: what can you do to stop these old addresses from withdrawing capital.
#TermMax