#dusk $DUSK When prices drop, everyone watches the K-line, and very few people try to calculate the other side: how many new coins are being minted on-chain every day, and where those coins ultimately go. I spent two nights taking DUSK’s supply side apart. The conclusion is that its inflation isn’t out of control, but it’s enough to keep generating selling pressure during weak market conditions.$SPCXB
First, look at the basic parameters: total supply is 1 billion, current circulating supply is about 420 million to 500 million. The block reward is 19.86 coins per block, and 80% of that goes directly to block producers. If you only look at how many coins are added each day, it doesn’t sound outrageous. The key isn’t the quantity—it’s “who the rewards are paid to.” After stakers receive the rewards, they basically have two choices: reinvest or cash out. In a bull market, people reinvest and the new coins get locked back into consensus; in a bear market, most people cash out, and those new coins directly become sell pressure.$SNDKB
Now layer in one more structure: the staking rate is 36%, which means roughly one-third of the circulating supply is locked. This portion doesn’t participate in selling, acting as a buffer for price. But conversely, the remaining 64% is freely circulating. Each day, the newly minted rewards plus early unlocks are adding “water” into this pool. DUSK’s market cap is only on the order of tens of millions of dollars. At this size, even steady sell-offs of tens or hundreds of thousands of coins per day can keep the price from lifting its head.
I didn’t work out this calculation to make anyone panic. What I want to say is that DUSK’s price floor in the short term doesn’t depend on the vision—it depends on where the two curves of “new coin issuance” and “real buy orders” intersect. The day NPEX’s securities settlement goes live and nodes start earning real transaction fees, the share of issuance rewards will decline and the inflation pressure will truly ease. Until then, every time I want to add to my position, I’ll first ask myself one question: can I absorb the new coins that are flowing into the market today?
@Dusk