In this round, $BTC quickly surged from around 73,000 to 77,000. I feel it’s not just a simple technical rebound. Over in Washington, the CFTC made its stance clear: if Congress doesn’t act, they will set rules for crypto assets themselves. That line is crucial—it effectively gives institutions a predictable framework, totally different from the SEC’s earlier vague attitude. On the same day, a $1.2 billion short position was liquidated, which is like directly removing the biggest near-term selling pressure. Although the liquidation was fierce, its scale wasn’t extreme—more like the final straw that broke the short sellers. So BTC was pushed upward simultaneously by regulatory tailwinds and short-covering. My view is that this kind of resonance is quite rare, indicating that the market’s fear of regulation is ebbing; instead of panic, it’s starting to treat clear rules as a positive. This CFTC statement also turns a “gray rhino” into a clear expectation—what institutions fear most isn’t strict rules, but having no rules. BTC holding up and rising independently despite volatility in the U.S. stock market shows that capital is repricing regulatory risk. However, after the rapid rally, there’s a dense layer of trapped longs above at 77,000–78,000, and short-term profit-taking is also building up. I don’t think it will break through 80,000 without any pullback. The more likely scenario is high-level consolidation for a few days to digest profits. So I’m not planning to chase. I’ll wait for a pullback toward around 75,000, assess the support there, and then decide. If the pullback doesn’t break, I’ll treat it as the starting point of the next leg higher; if it breaks below 74,000 on increased volume, then I’ll have to reassess.
