$BTC The market over the past couple of days has indeed been quite intense. It has reclaimed the 77,000 area, and $ETH has also returned to around 2,400. And this time it’s not just BTC going up—clearly, the whole market’s risk appetite has come back.
I still hold the same view: there’s no need to rush into shorting just because it’s risen.
This round of upside is, on the one hand, a sentiment recovery after falling for such a long time; on the other hand, there’s also clear capital driving it. Recently, inflows into BTC spot ETFs have noticeably increased, and at the same time, a large number of prior short positions have been liquidated, leading to a rather obvious squeeze-driven move.
So what’s most important now isn’t trying to guess the top, but to see whether this rally—driven by the squeeze—can gradually transition into a truly trend-based up move.
For now, my main focus on BTC is the 78,000–80,000 zone. If it can break out there with volume and hold above it, then the upside room afterward will open up further. If it reaches this area and obviously can’t push through, then I’d actually think that in the short term, it should first consolidate and digest the profit-taking.
Because it has risen too fast these past two days, the short-term has already accumulated a lot of profit-taking. The probability that it just keeps pulling straight up without pause is actually lower.
But a pullback doesn’t mean the rally is over.
What I’m most worried about now is that many people see it’s up, feel like they’ve missed the entry, then chase it with a bullish candle. The result is that right after they chase in, the market starts to consolidate, and then they end up complaining about the行情.
Honestly, there’s no need for that.
There’s no market that only keeps going up. There’s also no market that only keeps going down.
If BTC later holds sideways at high levels and doesn’t see a big-volume sell-off crash, then I actually think this will create an opportunity for the second-tier main themes and some smaller altcoins to catch up and rally.
I still hold the same view: there’s no need to rush into shorting just because it’s risen.
This round of upside is, on the one hand, a sentiment recovery after falling for such a long time; on the other hand, there’s also clear capital driving it. Recently, inflows into BTC spot ETFs have noticeably increased, and at the same time, a large number of prior short positions have been liquidated, leading to a rather obvious squeeze-driven move.
So what’s most important now isn’t trying to guess the top, but to see whether this rally—driven by the squeeze—can gradually transition into a truly trend-based up move.
For now, my main focus on BTC is the 78,000–80,000 zone. If it can break out there with volume and hold above it, then the upside room afterward will open up further. If it reaches this area and obviously can’t push through, then I’d actually think that in the short term, it should first consolidate and digest the profit-taking.
Because it has risen too fast these past two days, the short-term has already accumulated a lot of profit-taking. The probability that it just keeps pulling straight up without pause is actually lower.
But a pullback doesn’t mean the rally is over.
What I’m most worried about now is that many people see it’s up, feel like they’ve missed the entry, then chase it with a bullish candle. The result is that right after they chase in, the market starts to consolidate, and then they end up complaining about the行情.
Honestly, there’s no need for that.
There’s no market that only keeps going up. There’s also no market that only keeps going down.
If BTC later holds sideways at high levels and doesn’t see a big-volume sell-off crash, then I actually think this will create an opportunity for the second-tier main themes and some smaller altcoins to catch up and rally.
