Three days ago, the BTC was still around 64,000. In the two days that followed, it skyrocketed all the way to 79,500, nearly hitting 80,000. This time, it is the first time in nine months that it has stood above the 200-day moving average. This indicator is viewed as the standard dividing line between bull and bear markets. The last time BTC broke above it and held there was November 2025—the highlight period of the all-time high at 126,000. After that came a long bear market decline. Now BTC is back!!!

From the news flow perspective, the fuse for this round of sudden surge was the U.S. Treasury’s announcement that starting in September, the scale of its long-term Treasury repurchase plan would at least double, injecting expectations of liquidity into the market. That directly boosted risk assets—meaning the urge to buy became even stronger. The logic is basically: if there are fewer Treasuries available in the market, their prices rise; when prices rise, yields fall in tandem; with yields lower, naturally people don’t buy them as much. Big capital then shifts into gold and BTC. This is the core reason behind the surge. However, it’s worth noting that Coinbase’s premium is still negative, which indicates that demand in the U.S. spot market has not truly returned yet.

On the surface, the market looks like a broad-based chance to profit on the long side, but the on-chain structure is still hesitant. This is the market’s real condition right now.

The start of a bull market often sees price action move first, with news coming later—especially now, as Trump is about to face his midterm choices. The election promises themselves have some “water” in them. When it comes to the midterms, he will still try to stabilize the base. Remember: don’t think an eternal bull market has already arrived. This kind of upside growth risk is greater. If you want a bull market, you must be able to confirm that interest-rate cuts are coming. If there are no rate cuts, then it will turn into a dead-cat bounce.

What we’re seeing more of right now is emotion being crushed. Historically, this kind of rebound—falling from 120,000 to 60,000—would be within expectations. Many large whales have already been largely flushed out. Have you been paying attention to what people are discussing these past few months? A lot of the news is about certain institutions, and whales being liquidated. Even small exchanges, including overseas exchanges, couldn’t withstand it and were forced to exit in large numbers. Everyone, don’t get carried away. At this time, if you hold spot, you can hold steady and not act. If you want to enter, be patient and look at other altcoins. Wait a bit. If this wave ends, then the big cleanup of altcoins is coming. Interest-rate cuts are absolutely the core signal. You can also watch the clarity bill—once it’s passed, Bitcoin will inevitably reach even higher levels.