XAU is around 4586 now, hugging the 24h high at 4608. It looks pretty strong, but I won’t chase it from this spot.
Earlier, it was pushed up from 4339 all the way. In 24 hours it gained 2.4%. In the last four hours there were five bullish candles against one bearish candle, and the trend is indeed strong. In the order book, buy orders are pressing sell orders; the depth ratio is nearly 1.7x. Active trades are also net more buys than sells—none of that is wrong.
But the problem is the money driving this move.
The contract open interest fell by 14% in a day, and then shrank by another 13% over the next seven hours. While price is climbing, positions are being withdrawn—meaning the leverage stacked up in the earlier push is exiting. The funding rate is still 0. On the spot side, big orders have also shown net inflow of 0. In other words, this rally isn’t getting fresh capital to step in and confirm it.
To put it simply: the rise is real, but the fuel for pushing it higher is running low. Above 4608 there’s also an upper shadow from a previous spike, suggesting a ceiling pressure. Chasing long from here has mediocre risk-reward.
My approach: observe first, don’t chase. Wait to see whether a pullback to MA50 (around 4564) can hold and stay above it, or whether positions stabilize and spot capital flows in—then we can talk. It’s better than chasing while it’s still sticking to the highs.
#xau $XAU
Earlier, it was pushed up from 4339 all the way. In 24 hours it gained 2.4%. In the last four hours there were five bullish candles against one bearish candle, and the trend is indeed strong. In the order book, buy orders are pressing sell orders; the depth ratio is nearly 1.7x. Active trades are also net more buys than sells—none of that is wrong.
But the problem is the money driving this move.
The contract open interest fell by 14% in a day, and then shrank by another 13% over the next seven hours. While price is climbing, positions are being withdrawn—meaning the leverage stacked up in the earlier push is exiting. The funding rate is still 0. On the spot side, big orders have also shown net inflow of 0. In other words, this rally isn’t getting fresh capital to step in and confirm it.
To put it simply: the rise is real, but the fuel for pushing it higher is running low. Above 4608 there’s also an upper shadow from a previous spike, suggesting a ceiling pressure. Chasing long from here has mediocre risk-reward.
My approach: observe first, don’t chase. Wait to see whether a pullback to MA50 (around 4564) can hold and stay above it, or whether positions stabilize and spot capital flows in—then we can talk. It’s better than chasing while it’s still sticking to the highs.
#xau $XAU