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（Source: Leifeng.com）

On August 21, JPMorgan in its latest research report said that Aliyun’s current 12% profit margin is systematically underestimated, and its mature-state ROIC should be close to 20%. The reason is that, over the past few quarters, Capex has ramped up quickly: a large number of GPUs and data center assets have just been commissioned and are still in a ramp-up stage with utilization at about 60%. In the first year, ROIC for a single batch is only about 6%, far below the mature-state 20%. JPMorgan uses a stacked vintage model to extrapolate: even if Capex remains stable and unit economics no longer improve, as older assets become more dominant quarter by quarter and new assets’ utilization ramps up, the overall weighted ROIC will naturally rise from the current ~6% to nearly 16%. Net free cash flow for AI infrastructure is expected to cross the break-even line around the third year.