In this market cycle, what’s truly worth paying attention to isn’t “how much it has risen,” but:
BTC and ETH are simultaneously moving toward the key resistance zone left behind by the previous rebound.
From the perspective of both the 1H and 4H timeframes, the trend is still very strong; however, this is also the spot where disagreements are most likely to arise.
🟠 BTC: The real pressure isn’t here yet, but it’s getting closer
BTC on the 1H timeframe has already surged to 79,567, and is currently around 77,792.
First, look at the 1H short-term setup:
78,200～79,600
But looking at the 4H structure, I believe what truly needs focused attention is:
🔴 82,000～84,600
This previous rebound formed an important high point/supply zone, and it is also the “major-level test” that the current rally truly needs to face.
If BTC:
Break 79,600 → confirm on the pullback → then push toward 82,000～84,600
So the long structure is still very intact.
But if you see a clear spike-and-retrace near 79,500～80,000, be careful about short-term profit-taking being realized.
🟣 ETH: It has already reached the resistance area at the prior rebound high
ETH’s 1H high already touched 2,448.88; it’s currently around 2,392.
This part is especially key.
Because looking at the 4H structure, ETH has already come near the high of the previous rebound:
🔴 2,430～2,500
So what ETH is facing right now isn’t ordinary resistance, but a core resistance zone formed by the prior peak.
If it breaks out effectively and holds above 2,500:
➡️ Upside room is likely to open up further.
If repeated attempts to break fail:
➡️ First, watch for and be prepared for a round of short-term pullback.
📌 My trading thesis
Plan A｜breakout follow-through
BTC effectively breaks 79,600; after a pullback confirmation, then watch for 82,000～84,600.
ETH effectively breaks 2,450～2,500; after a pullback confirmation, then consider following.
Plan B｜pullback to catch the next move
BTC: Focus on short-term support around 76,300.
ETH: watch especially for support around 2,350.
The biggest thing to avoid now is: after seeing a big bullish candle, emotion-driven chasing.
The trend may look bullish, but trading must wait for the right position + confirmation + a plan.
🌎 Why is this market suddenly so strong?
This surge isn’t just due to technical factors.
Recently, the market has been driven by factors such as the U.S. Treasury expanding long-term Treasury repo operations, improving regulatory expectations, and large-scale short liquidations. Media reports show that in the recent period, the crypto market saw short liquidations totaling billions of dollars. After BTC broke above $70,000, the rally accelerated further.
So this is also why I think:
This rally can’t be simply defined as a “pure technical rebound.”
On the other hand, after a period of very fast upward movement, volatility will also increase noticeably due to high-level profit-taking and shorts re-entering.
👇 Which scenario do you think will happen next?
A｜BTC breaks 82,000 and accelerates further 🔥
B｜spike and retrace, first shake out some chasing-long capital ↘️
C｜After consolidation at the high level, choose a direction 🤔
Personally, right now:
The market is bullish on the larger timeframe, so don’t blindly chase highs in the short term.
Do you think BTC can truly break through 82,000～84,600 this time?
