SpaceX collected $134 yesterday, down more than 4%. It fell straight below its $135 offering price, and its market cap is now down to $1.77 trillion. The reason for the sell-off is simple: the lock-up period is still being lifted, with continuous additional shares being released. The whole arrangement won’t end until 2027, during which time about 88% of the total 13 billion shares will be released.
Put plainly, the unlocking was known in advance—everyone already knew the chips would come out slowly. If the selling pressure still drives the price below the issue price, it can only mean the current sentiment is weak. There are also hedges on the table: Trump has just signed a memorandum paving the way for 1,000 launches per year in 2030; Musk, meanwhile, says revenues by the late 2030s could rise 20x, and he also promises to buy 220,000 Nvidia super chips. The pie is being drawn pretty big, but the numbers haven’t been cashed in yet. Even the Starship recovery has been delayed by a few months.
My view: the unlock situation was already made clear on the market’s chessboard, and a drop below the issue price is the most tangible “thermometer” for sentiment. These stocks may swing around with the news in the short term—don’t take the bait and don’t panic-sell. Just wait for the supply to grind itself through. Not investment advice, though.
Put plainly, the unlocking was known in advance—everyone already knew the chips would come out slowly. If the selling pressure still drives the price below the issue price, it can only mean the current sentiment is weak. There are also hedges on the table: Trump has just signed a memorandum paving the way for 1,000 launches per year in 2030; Musk, meanwhile, says revenues by the late 2030s could rise 20x, and he also promises to buy 220,000 Nvidia super chips. The pie is being drawn pretty big, but the numbers haven’t been cashed in yet. Even the Starship recovery has been delayed by a few months.
My view: the unlock situation was already made clear on the market’s chessboard, and a drop below the issue price is the most tangible “thermometer” for sentiment. These stocks may swing around with the news in the short term—don’t take the bait and don’t panic-sell. Just wait for the supply to grind itself through. Not investment advice, though.