Bitcoin broke the 200-day moving average and, in the process, passed 75,000. People love to talk about the 200-day moving average—insiders are all watching it too. It’s not that it has any magic of its own; it’s just that everyone is looking at it, so it gets magic. Once it breaks, the mood is different. But I need to remind myself of one thing: in a bull market, technical signals are reliable; in a bear market, fake breakouts are common. So is this a bull market now? If you look at the price, yes. If you look at most people’s mindset, maybe not. The last time BTC crossed the 200-day moving average was last November—what happened after that? If I remember right, it didn’t last long. This time, can it be different? I don’t know. I’m just watching it—inside my head, the fight between “not again” and “here we go again.”