The price of Ethereum approaches February 2026 at a decisive crossroads. Indeed, after losing nearly 7% in January, ETH finishes the month in stark contrast to its historical trend. Usually, in January, the median return typically hovers around +32%, but this year, the momentum has reversed. In February, in parallel, the median gain of ETH stands at approximately +15% since 2016.
The last time Ethereum approached February in a similar position was last year. Indeed, in 2025, weakness persisted, leading to a monthly decline of 32% to 37%. Whether 2026 follows this path or diverges will then depend on the interaction between technical structure, on-chain data, and institutional flows over the coming weeks.
February history for Ethereum and determining wedge pattern.
Long-term data analysis helps frame expectations. Since 2016, Ethereum has shown a median return of about +15% in February. So it is not the most performing month for the altcoin, but it shows more increases than decreases.
This year, however, the month of January is proving radically different. Instead of following its median gain of +32%, ETH ends January 2026 down about 7%. It thus approaches the pattern of 2025, where the weakness at the beginning of the year was followed by a decline in February.
Thus, Ethereum approaches February 2026 at a decisive crossroads. That said, not all analysts consider seasonality as a confidence indicator to follow.
The team of analysts at B2BINPAY, an all-in-one crypto ecosystem for businesses, notably warns against excessive reliance on historical patterns.
"One should not blindly trust historical patterns. Most exist for quite obvious reasons," they stated.
They also add that ETH currently lacks immediate growth catalysts.
"But nothing suggests that February must necessarily bring growth. In this logic, it is not relevant to anticipate that February retains any 'historical' bullish significance," they emphasized.
Analysts also take last year as an example:
"Even if we take February 2025 as an example, Ethereum dropped by 37%," they stated.
This skepticism is also reflected in the current chart structure. Indeed, on the two-day time frame, ETH's price remains within a descending wedge pattern. A descending wedge forms when the price records increasingly lower highs and lows. It often signals a weakening of selling pressure and a possibility of trend reversal.
In this case, the wedge is wide and volatile. A confirmed bullish breakout would suggest a movement of about 60%. This is a maximum target and not a forecast.
The dynamics, called momentum, add an additional difficulty for Ethereum's evolution.
Between December 17 and January 29, ETH is on the verge of recording increasingly lower lows. Over the same period, the relative strength index (RSI) remained around 37. For reference, the RSI measures whether momentum is controlled by buyers or sellers.
When the price drops but the RSI does not follow, it indicates a weakening of selling pressure, which generates an early bullish divergence.
If the next candle for the ETH price stays above $2,690 and the RSI stabilizes, the chances of a reversal increase as a new low is confirmed on the price. However, confirmation remains absent; this is why on-chain data becomes crucial.
On-chain data supports a rebound but conviction is waning.
On-chain indicators constitute the first important validation test. A key indicator is the Net Unrealized Profit/Loss (NUPL), which measures unrealized profits or losses.
Currently, Ethereum's NUPL is around 0.19, placing it in the 'hope-fear' zone. This level holds historical significance. Indeed, in June 2025, the NUPL fell close to 0.17, while ETH was trading around $2,200. The following month, the price soared to $4,800, a gain of over 110%.
Thus, the NUPL aligns with what the wedge and RSI suggest: selling pressure is decreasing, and unrealized profits are declining. This leaves upside potential.
However, the signal remains incomplete. True market lows generally occur when the NUPL turns negative. In April 2025, it fell close to −0.22, marking a total capitulation.
Today's value remains well above this threshold, which means there is still room for sales. This therefore suggests relief rallies, but not a new bullish cycle.
The behavior of HODLers further reinforces this contrasting picture. The Hodler Net Position Change indicator allows tracking whether long-term investors are accumulating or distributing. Throughout January, this indicator remained positive.
Accumulation peaked on January 18 at around 338,700 ETH. On January 29, this figure fell back to around 151,600 ETH, representing a decline of more than 55%. Holders continue to buy, but with significantly less conviction.
This corresponds to how analysts at B2BINPAY describe the entire crypto market.
"Supply and demand are currently balanced: buyers are willing to buy at roughly the same levels where sellers are willing to sell [...] The market needs a clear signal, either up or down, for the direction to clarify," they stated.
In summary, the NUPL and holder activity validate a rebound scenario but show declining conviction. This thus turns the spotlight on the next decisive group: large investors.
Whales are accumulating, but ETFs are still absent.
The large holders, or crypto whales, send a stronger signal than institutional investors. Indeed, data on the supply held by whales shows a continued accumulation in January. At the beginning of the month, these holders controlled about 101.18 million ETH. By the end of the month, this figure had risen to about 105.16 million ETH.
This represents an increase of nearly 4 million ETH, reflecting active purchases during dips.
Thus, while the price has retreated after mid-January highs, large portfolios have continued to bolster their exposure. This confirms the rebound scenario for ETH highlighted by the NUPL and the wedge, which contrasts sharply with 2025.
By the end of January 2025, whales held nearly 105.22 million ETH. By the end of February, this figure had dropped to around 101.96 million ETH. This distribution coincided with a 32% drop in ETH in February. Last year, whales were selling, while this year they are accumulating.
Meanwhile, the sawtooth ETF flows reflect increased caution. Indeed, several days of strong inflows have been followed by massive outflows. By the end of January, withdrawals exceeded the equivalent of 70,000 ETH.
This means that ETFs have not clearly boarded the recovery train.
John Murillo, Chief Business Officer of B2BROKER, a global fintech solutions provider for financial institutions, believes that the behavior of ETFs in January reflects tactical positioning rather than a simple exit.
"Mid-January outflows from spot-ETH ETFs seem less like a structural outflow and more like a tactical rebalancing. The month-end reversal, led by strong inflows into Fidelity's FETH, suggests that institutional behavior is becoming increasingly shared.[...] Instead of a massive risk reduction, flows appear fragmented by issuer," he stated.
According to Murillo:
"January ETF dynamics reflect increasing maturity rather than disengagement," he noted.
Murillo also warns that if this trend continues, derivatives products could take over price formation, which poses a key risk for the price:
"If February brings choppy or moderate ETF flows while activity in derivatives products continues to grow, the balance of influence could then shift from spot demand towards price discovery more driven by leverage effects.
February should be a true test of whether Ethereum's price is more anchored by institutional allocation in the spot market or by the dynamics of derivatives products," he explained.
For now, whales remain optimistic, and institutions remain cautious. This combination favors rebounds but limits sustainability.
The key thresholds for Ethereum's price in February 2026.
The previously mentioned NUPL shows that this is not a confirmed floor. The downside risk therefore persists.
The first critical support for the ETH price is around $2,690. This corresponds to the support observed over the last two days as well as the previous consolidation phase. A net close below $2,690 would signal a resumption of control by sellers. This would open the way for a decline towards $2,120.
To the upside, Ethereum must first reclaim the $3,000 mark. This is both a psychological and structural barrier. The price has failed to break this level several times since December.
Staying above $3,000 would then indicate a return of confidence.
The next resistance is around $3,340, a threshold that has limited rallies since December 9. A bullish breakout would therefore mark a significant change in the price structure of ETH.
Beyond that, the threshold of $3,520 becomes crucial. A sustained breach and maintenance above $3,520 would indeed confirm the resumption of bullish momentum and open the way for progression towards $4,030.
The moral of the story: In February, Ethereum can still catch a cold.