8.21 Chen Jie Morning Analysis

Gold ETF holdings steadily increased by +4.28 tons. Central bank reserves remain stable as a backstop (+19.91 tons). Major institutions such as Bank of America are optimistic about the value of gold for long-term hedging and inflation protection. The market is focused on the initial reading of the August manufacturing PMI for Europe and the U.S. this evening.

Yesterday, gold prices surged to a historical high of 4540.88, then maintained a strong consolidation at elevated levels. In the early session, prices dipped to 4514 before stabilizing. Currently, trading is around 4518. The trend of large fund inflows is steady. The morning session maintained a high-level buildup with a bullish consolidation bias.

On the 15-minute chart, around 4514, the price received support from a cluster of moving averages. On the 1-hour chart, the uptrend remains dispersed to the upside, supported by the 1H MA10 (4520) and the MA20/BOLL middle band (4502). After short-term sideways digestion, momentum builds for a push higher.

On the 4-hour chart, price continues to rise along the MA5 (4504). The daily candlestick pattern is moving along the upper Bollinger Band, forming a bullish main breakout channel. The broader uptrend remains firm. In line with the trend, focus on buying on dips.

Trading Strategy
Go long around 4495-4515, target 4545-4575-4605. Risk control: 4486#xau