The flames in the Middle East are burning ever hotter. Trump wants to carry out the “harshest economic isolation in history” against Iran, and he also vowed to take control of the Strait of Hormuz. Oil prices have surged to near a one-month high, and global inflation expectations are being pushed even higher again. The bizarre part is that Bitcoin didn’t fall along with risk assets—instead, it’s been rallying against the trend. It’s now above $71,649, up 8.7% in the past 24 hours; Ethereum is even stronger, up 15% to $2,275.
My judgment is very straightforward: this isn’t a vague market of “it could go up or it could go down.” The more chaotic the geopolitical situation is and the more fiat currencies get debased, the more capital flows into “digital gold.” Bitcoin is being used as a hedging tool—not as a typical risk asset.
But don’t get carried away and chase the highs. Oil is stoking inflation; once the Fed is forced to turn hawkish and long-term bond yields keep rising, this round of celebration could be doused at any moment. This crypto cycle’s logic is about hedging plus a decentralized belief—not a fundamental turnaround. Manage your position size, and don’t treat the hedging narrative as an excuse for blind FOMO.
My judgment is very straightforward: this isn’t a vague market of “it could go up or it could go down.” The more chaotic the geopolitical situation is and the more fiat currencies get debased, the more capital flows into “digital gold.” Bitcoin is being used as a hedging tool—not as a typical risk asset.
But don’t get carried away and chase the highs. Oil is stoking inflation; once the Fed is forced to turn hawkish and long-term bond yields keep rising, this round of celebration could be doused at any moment. This crypto cycle’s logic is about hedging plus a decentralized belief—not a fundamental turnaround. Manage your position size, and don’t treat the hedging narrative as an excuse for blind FOMO.