BTC has surged from 68882 to 73400; in the past 4 hours, this is no longer a normal rebound. With rising volume, we’ve seen a series of bullish candles continuously reclaiming 70000. The shorts’ stop-losses and covering have pushed price through the major resistance zone ahead. Now around 73100, after pushing higher, it has started to tighten/consolidate. For the short term, first look at the liquidity in the 73400–73500 area. Once that’s swept, it should pull back to test 72950–72750 for absorption.
There’s a funding/liquidity detail to watch: OI has been rising from a low point, but overall it’s still below the level before the rally. The long/short accounts ratio has dropped to 0.94, meaning shorts are increasing. That in turn leaves fuel for further “squeeze” pushing from above. 72950–73000 is the immediate support; as long as it holds, the next leg could target 74200. If it stays strong, then 74800–75000. Only if the pullback breaks below 72400 on heavy volume will it have a chance to return to find support in the 71800–71100 zone.
Today there’s no direct speech from the Federal Reserve; the market is temporarily digesting this breakout. The real macro wildcard to watch comes next week’s Jackson Hole meeting. Piggy’s view: the probability is higher for a pattern of first rallying intraday to sweep shorts, then pulling back to confirm. If the 4-hour chart falls back below 70000 and closes steadily with volume, then this upward structure would be considered invalid.
There’s a funding/liquidity detail to watch: OI has been rising from a low point, but overall it’s still below the level before the rally. The long/short accounts ratio has dropped to 0.94, meaning shorts are increasing. That in turn leaves fuel for further “squeeze” pushing from above. 72950–73000 is the immediate support; as long as it holds, the next leg could target 74200. If it stays strong, then 74800–75000. Only if the pullback breaks below 72400 on heavy volume will it have a chance to return to find support in the 71800–71100 zone.
Today there’s no direct speech from the Federal Reserve; the market is temporarily digesting this breakout. The real macro wildcard to watch comes next week’s Jackson Hole meeting. Piggy’s view: the probability is higher for a pattern of first rallying intraday to sweep shorts, then pulling back to confirm. If the 4-hour chart falls back below 70000 and closes steadily with volume, then this upward structure would be considered invalid.