If you haven't experienced the bear of 21 years, if the four-year cycle is still in play, aren't these long and short ratios non-existent?
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鸡父
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It was originally said to wait until the weekly close to see how to operate, but today many people came to ask me throughout the day. I guess it's because of the sharp drop in the morning, which made many people panic again.
My usual posting frequency is not high, but in the past few days, I will try to persist in posting more, hoping to bring a bit of confidence to the bulls.
Today, I provide an indicator of the long-short ratio. Normally, the ratio of long to short positions is inversely related to the price trend (for example, as the price rises, the long-short ratio decreases). However, if the long-short ratio and the price move in the same direction (for instance, the price is lower, but more people are shorting), it indicates a high probability turning point.
As shown in Figure 1, on January 20, 25, the price reached a new high of 110000, and as a result, more people went long, but later it dropped all the way to 74500.
As shown in Figure 2, on April 7, 25, the price reached a new low of 74500, and as a result, more people shorted.
Again, as shown in Figure 3, on November 21 of this year, it plummeted to 80600, and as a result, more people shorted.
There are many such examples, but due to space limitations, I won't list them all.
Today (Figure 4), the price created a lower low, but at the same time, we also saw more people shorting rather than going long. Besides, a stronger supporting evidence is that the fees have also turned negative simultaneously, which indicates that many people are really chasing shorts at positions like 82500-83000, meaning that Bitcoin may currently be at a stage turning point.
As a trader, unless I have set positions in advance, I will not make unnecessary operations during a trend, whether it's an upward or downward trend. I tend to wait until the market stabilizes before deciding whether to close my positions based on indicators and macro background.
Especially when the market movement exceeds my expectations, I need more time to think and judge, rather than shouting 'Brothers, hurry up and close or add positions,' which is too emotional and not my style.
In short, this is my habit, and this habit is formed based on good position management. Without the risk of liquidation, I can wait longer, think through more dimensions of information, and strive to come up with a relatively reasonable operation plan.
Based on the current situation, everyone (especially those who are stuck in long positions) is quite anxious, so I will try to write out the market analysis tomorrow. Many people have also been asking me about precious metals these days, and I will write a bit more about that.
My usual posting frequency is not high, but in the past few days, I will try to persist in posting more, hoping to bring a bit of confidence to the bulls.
Today, I provide an indicator of the long-short ratio. Normally, the ratio of long to short positions is inversely related to the price trend (for example, as the price rises, the long-short ratio decreases). However, if the long-short ratio and the price move in the same direction (for instance, the price is lower, but more people are shorting), it indicates a high probability turning point.
As shown in Figure 1, on January 20, 25, the price reached a new high of 110000, and as a result, more people went long, but later it dropped all the way to 74500.
As shown in Figure 2, on April 7, 25, the price reached a new low of 74500, and as a result, more people shorted.
Again, as shown in Figure 3, on November 21 of this year, it plummeted to 80600, and as a result, more people shorted.
There are many such examples, but due to space limitations, I won't list them all.
Today (Figure 4), the price created a lower low, but at the same time, we also saw more people shorting rather than going long. Besides, a stronger supporting evidence is that the fees have also turned negative simultaneously, which indicates that many people are really chasing shorts at positions like 82500-83000, meaning that Bitcoin may currently be at a stage turning point.
As a trader, unless I have set positions in advance, I will not make unnecessary operations during a trend, whether it's an upward or downward trend. I tend to wait until the market stabilizes before deciding whether to close my positions based on indicators and macro background.
Especially when the market movement exceeds my expectations, I need more time to think and judge, rather than shouting 'Brothers, hurry up and close or add positions,' which is too emotional and not my style.
In short, this is my habit, and this habit is formed based on good position management. Without the risk of liquidation, I can wait longer, think through more dimensions of information, and strive to come up with a relatively reasonable operation plan.
Based on the current situation, everyone (especially those who are stuck in long positions) is quite anxious, so I will try to write out the market analysis tomorrow. Many people have also been asking me about precious metals these days, and I will write a bit more about that.
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