ETH is currently around 2318. The spot market is still up over 4% in the past 24 hours, but the 4-hour chart has already flipped green-to-red. It has pulled back a bit from the recent high around 2360.
This move is not just retail sentiment pushing it up. In the spot segment, the last nearly 3 hours of fund-flow candles are all red—12 straight red. On August 19, the ETF added a net 76,000 ETH, the largest single-day inflow in the past seven trading days. There are also reports that big players are withdrawing from exchanges. The underlying logic of mid-term capital entering the market hasn’t broken.
The issue is at the short-term position. Price has been hugging the 1-day high; RSI has pushed to 82—well into overbought territory—and it even broke above the upper Bollinger Band. On the order book, sell orders are noticeably thicker than buy orders. Meanwhile, the futures side’s active buying has only reached about 40%, and it’s still declining. The big players’ accounts are also reducing their long exposure. On-chain leverage borrowing has dropped by more than 70% over the last 12 hours. The fuel for adding leverage is clearly running out.
In plain terms: the money is still in the market, but at these high levels, some people are starting to gradually reduce positions—it's not one-sided anymore.
As for direction at this point, I’m still leaning bullish, but I won’t chase. If you want to enter, wait for a pullback. Watch the 15-minute moving averages and whether it can hold steady around the 2300 area, and whether the capital returns. Then the entry will be much more comfortable than buying now.
#eth $ETH
This move is not just retail sentiment pushing it up. In the spot segment, the last nearly 3 hours of fund-flow candles are all red—12 straight red. On August 19, the ETF added a net 76,000 ETH, the largest single-day inflow in the past seven trading days. There are also reports that big players are withdrawing from exchanges. The underlying logic of mid-term capital entering the market hasn’t broken.
The issue is at the short-term position. Price has been hugging the 1-day high; RSI has pushed to 82—well into overbought territory—and it even broke above the upper Bollinger Band. On the order book, sell orders are noticeably thicker than buy orders. Meanwhile, the futures side’s active buying has only reached about 40%, and it’s still declining. The big players’ accounts are also reducing their long exposure. On-chain leverage borrowing has dropped by more than 70% over the last 12 hours. The fuel for adding leverage is clearly running out.
In plain terms: the money is still in the market, but at these high levels, some people are starting to gradually reduce positions—it's not one-sided anymore.
As for direction at this point, I’m still leaning bullish, but I won’t chase. If you want to enter, wait for a pullback. Watch the 15-minute moving averages and whether it can hold steady around the 2300 area, and whether the capital returns. Then the entry will be much more comfortable than buying now.
#eth $ETH