Has the bull market really returned? Is this rally a short-term squeeze, or has the trend completely reversed?
On Wednesday, when BTC surged to $70,059 and ETH jumped 12% intraday, I happened to be monitoring fund flows on-chain.
Seeing the sharp breakout, I went ahead and captured a few interactions with lending protocols using my test equipment, and also ran through the @TermMax that has been getting a lot of discussion lately.
After interacting with it myself, I found that its logic of splitting the entire debt into FT, GT, and XT actually has substance. FT is essentially a zero-coupon bond; combined with using Range Orders to set a pricing curve that locks in the yield at maturity, it basically turns “fixed interest rates” into an on-chain asset that can be freely traded.
Recently, it launched RWA collateral on BNB Chain and even set up a term structure with no liquidation leverage, TermMax Alpha—quite fancy in how it handles on-chain fixed income.
However, this design really can work. What genuinely worries me is the liquidity conversion and how it performs in extreme market conditions. If there isn’t enough market depth, FT simply won’t be liquid—borrowers who want to buy back FT early for cost arbitrage might not even find enough buy-side demand. If you keep pressing the questions, its so-called “no liquidation” is essentially paying the Premium (insurance premium) in advance. In a one-way crash, ordinary people who factor in the premium cost may never break even. The more complex the mechanism, the wider the surface area for systemic risk exposure.
It’s trying to build an on-chain bond infrastructure, but so far it looks more like a tool for developers and advanced players. For ordinary users, blindly adding leverage or playing structured yield is very easy to get wrong and fall into traps.
Overall, #TermMax ’s direction of advancing on-chain fixed income is fine—but returns always have to match the risk. Its token $TMX is expected to have its TGE on August 25. Instead of forcing high-risk leverage, it’s better to treat this rationally: think through the risk model first before moving any funds.
On Wednesday, when BTC surged to $70,059 and ETH jumped 12% intraday, I happened to be monitoring fund flows on-chain.
Seeing the sharp breakout, I went ahead and captured a few interactions with lending protocols using my test equipment, and also ran through the @TermMax that has been getting a lot of discussion lately.
After interacting with it myself, I found that its logic of splitting the entire debt into FT, GT, and XT actually has substance. FT is essentially a zero-coupon bond; combined with using Range Orders to set a pricing curve that locks in the yield at maturity, it basically turns “fixed interest rates” into an on-chain asset that can be freely traded.
Recently, it launched RWA collateral on BNB Chain and even set up a term structure with no liquidation leverage, TermMax Alpha—quite fancy in how it handles on-chain fixed income.
However, this design really can work. What genuinely worries me is the liquidity conversion and how it performs in extreme market conditions. If there isn’t enough market depth, FT simply won’t be liquid—borrowers who want to buy back FT early for cost arbitrage might not even find enough buy-side demand. If you keep pressing the questions, its so-called “no liquidation” is essentially paying the Premium (insurance premium) in advance. In a one-way crash, ordinary people who factor in the premium cost may never break even. The more complex the mechanism, the wider the surface area for systemic risk exposure.
It’s trying to build an on-chain bond infrastructure, but so far it looks more like a tool for developers and advanced players. For ordinary users, blindly adding leverage or playing structured yield is very easy to get wrong and fall into traps.
Overall, #TermMax ’s direction of advancing on-chain fixed income is fine—but returns always have to match the risk. Its token $TMX is expected to have its TGE on August 25. Instead of forcing high-risk leverage, it’s better to treat this rationally: think through the risk model first before moving any funds.