Author: Viee, Amelia | Biteye Content Team
On January 29, 2026, gold fell 3% in a single day, marking the largest drop in recent times. Just a few days earlier, gold had just broken through $5600 per ounce, reaching a new high, and silver followed suit. The year 2026 has already far exceeded JPMorgan's expectations from mid-December.
Data source: JPMorgan
In contrast, Bitcoin continues to remain in a weak oscillation range after the pullback, while the market performance of traditional precious metals and Bitcoin continues to widen the gap. Although it is known as 'digital gold', Bitcoin does not seem to have stabilized yet. The more traditional favorable conditions for gold and silver, such as inflation and war, arise, the more it resembles a risk asset, fluctuating with risk appetite. Why is that?
If we cannot understand the actual role of Bitcoin in the current market structure, we cannot make rational asset allocation decisions.
Therefore, this article attempts to answer from multiple angles:
Why have precious metals surged recently?
Why has Bitcoin performed so poorly in the past year?
Looking back in history, how did Bitcoin perform when gold was rising?
For ordinary investors, how should one choose in this divided market environment?
1. The cross-cycle game: The decade-long confrontation between gold, silver, and Bitcoin
From a long-term perspective, Bitcoin remains one of the highest-returning assets. However, over the past year, Bitcoin's performance has clearly lagged behind that of gold and silver. The market trends from 2025 to early 2026 show a very distinct binary differentiation, with the precious metals market entering a phase referred to as a 'super cycle', while Bitcoin appears somewhat sluggish. Here are comparison data for three key cycles:
Data source: TradingView
Data source: TradingView
This divergence in trends is not new. As early as the beginning of 2020, during the initial phase of the pandemic, gold and silver surged due to risk aversion, while Bitcoin once plummeted by over 30%, only to rebound afterward. In the 2017 bull market, Bitcoin surged by 1359%, while gold only rose by 7%; in the 2018 bear market, Bitcoin fell by 63%, while gold declined by only 5%; in the 2022 bear market, Bitcoin dropped by 57%, while gold slightly increased by 1%. This seems to suggest that the price correlation between Bitcoin and gold is not stable, and it resembles an asset positioned at the intersection of traditional finance and new finance, exhibiting both technological growth attributes and being influenced by liquidity strength, making it harder to equate with gold, the perennial safe-haven asset.
Therefore, when we are surprised that 'digital gold does not rise while real gold explodes', what we should actually discuss is: Is Bitcoin really treated as a safe-haven asset by the market? Based on the current trading structure and the behavior of major funds, the answer may be negative. In the short term (1-2 years), gold and silver have indeed outperformed Bitcoin, but in the long term (10 years+), Bitcoin's returns are 65 times that of gold - when time is extended, Bitcoin proves with a 213-fold return that it may not be 'digital gold', but it is the greatest asymmetrical investment opportunity of this era.
2. Cause analysis: Why have gold and silver surged more than BTC in recent years?
The frequent new highs in gold and silver, alongside Bitcoin's lagging narrative, reflect not only the divergence of price trends but also a deep-seated deviation in asset attributes, market perception, and macro logic. We can understand the watershed between 'digital gold' and 'traditional gold' from the following four angles.
2.1 Under the trust crisis, central banks take the lead in buying gold
In an era of strong currency devaluation expectations, who continues to pay determines the long-term trend of assets. From 2022 to 2024, central banks around the world have continuously increased their gold holdings significantly for three years, with an average annual net purchase of over 1,000 tons. Whether it is emerging markets like China and Poland or resource-rich countries like Kazakhstan and Brazil, gold is seen as a core reserve asset to combat the risks of the US dollar. The key is that the higher the price rises, the more the central banks buy - this behavior pattern of 'buying more as it gets more expensive' reflects the central banks' firm belief in gold as the ultimate reserve asset. Bitcoin struggles to gain central bank recognition, which is a structural issue: gold has a 5,000-year consensus and does not rely on any national credit; whereas Bitcoin requires electricity, networks, and private keys, making central banks hesitant to allocate it on a large scale.
Data source: World Gold Council, ING Research
2.2 Gold and silver return to 'physical priority'
As global geopolitical conflicts continue to escalate and financial sanctions are frequently imposed, asset security will become a matter of whether it can be realized. After the new U.S. government takes office in 2025, policies of high tariffs and export restrictions will frequently emerge, disrupting the global market order, and gold will naturally become the ultimate asset that does not rely on the credit of other countries. At the same time, the value of silver in industrial fields is beginning to be released: the expansion of industries such as new energy, AI data centers, and photovoltaic manufacturing is driving up the industrial demand for silver, which is backed by real supply-demand mismatches. In this context, speculation in silver resonates with fundamentals, leading to a surge that naturally outpaces gold.
2.3 The structural dilemma of Bitcoin: from 'safe-haven asset' to 'leveraged tech stock'
In the past, people believed Bitcoin was a tool against the central banks' excessive issuance of currency, but with the approval of ETFs and the entry of institutions, the capital structure has undergone fundamental changes. Wall Street institutions include Bitcoin in their portfolios, usually treating it as a 'highly elastic risk asset' - we can see from the data that in the second half of 2025, the correlation between Bitcoin and U.S. tech stocks reached 0.8, an unprecedented high correlation, meaning Bitcoin is increasingly resembling a leveraged tech stock. When market risks arise, institutions prefer to sell Bitcoin for cash first, unlike gold which is bought.
Data source: Bloomberg
More representative is the crash liquidation on October 10, 2025, where $19 billion of leveraged positions were liquidated in one go, and Bitcoin did not exhibit safe-haven properties but instead experienced a crash-like decline due to its high-leverage structure.
2.4 Why is Bitcoin still falling?
In addition to structural dilemmas, Bitcoin's recent persistent slump has three deeper reasons:
The ecological dilemma of the cryptocurrency circle, with AI stealing business. The ecological construction of the cryptocurrency circle is severely lagging. While the AI track is crazily attracting capital, the 'innovation' in the cryptocurrency circle is still playing with memes. There are no killer applications, no real demand, only speculation.
The shadow of quantum computing. The threat of quantum computing is not unfounded. Although true quantum cracking is still many years away, this narrative has already deterred some institutions. Google's Willow chip has already demonstrated quantum advantages, while the Bitcoin community is researching anti-quantum signature schemes, but upgrades require community consensus, which slows down the anti-quantum process while also making the network more robust.
The OGs are selling. Many early Bitcoin holders are exiting. They feel that Bitcoin has 'changed' - from a decentralized idealistic currency to a speculative tool for Wall Street. After the approval of ETFs, the spiritual core of Bitcoin seems to be gone. MicroStrategy, BlackRock, Fidelity... institutional holdings are growing larger, and Bitcoin's price is no longer determined by retail investors but rather by institutional balance sheets. This is both a boon (liquidity) and a curse (loss of original intention).
3. In-depth analysis: The historical connection between Bitcoin and gold
By reviewing the historical connection between Bitcoin and gold, it can be found that their price correlation during major economic events is quite limited, and their performances often diverge. Therefore, the repeated mention of the term 'digital gold' may not be because Bitcoin truly resembles gold, but because the market needs a familiar reference.
Firstly, the linkage between Bitcoin and gold has never been a safe-haven resonance from the very beginning. In the early days, Bitcoin was still in the startup phase within geek circles, with its market value and attention being minimal. In 2013, when the banking crisis broke out in Cyprus and some capital control measures were implemented, gold prices significantly retreated from their high positions by about 15%; during the same period, Bitcoin soared to over $1,000. This was interpreted by some as capital fleeing and safe-haven funds pouring into Bitcoin; however, looking back, the Bitcoin surge in 2013 was more driven by speculation and early sentiment, and its safe-haven properties were not widely recognized. That year, gold plummeted, and Bitcoin skyrocketed, with their correlation being very low - the monthly return correlation was only 0.08, nearly zero.
Secondly, periods of true synchronization only occur during phases of liquidity flooding. After the pandemic in 2020, central banks around the world unprecedentedly injected liquidity, and investors increasingly worried about the excessive issuance of fiat currency and inflation expectations, leading both gold and Bitcoin to strengthen. In August 2020, gold prices hit a then-historical high (surpassing $2,000), while Bitcoin broke through $20,000 at the end of 2020, subsequently accelerating to over $60,000 in 2021. Many viewpoints argue that during this period, Bitcoin began to exhibit 'anti-inflation' properties akin to digital gold, benefiting from the loosening monetary policies of various countries. However, it should be noted that essentially, it was the loose environment that provided a common ground for the rise of both, with Bitcoin's volatility being far greater than that of gold (annualized volatility of 72% vs 16%).
Third, the correlation between Bitcoin and gold is long-term unstable, and the narrative of digital gold still needs to be verified. The data shows that the correlation between gold and Bitcoin has been fluctuating long-term and is generally unstable. Especially after 2020, although the prices of both sometimes rise in sync, the correlation has not significantly strengthened and often shows negative correlation. This indicates that Bitcoin has not consistently played the role of 'digital gold', and its price movements are more driven by independent market logic.
Data source: Newhedge
Through review, it is evident that gold is a risk-averse asset that has been repeatedly validated by history, while Bitcoin resembles an unconventional hedging tool that only exists under specific narratives. When a crisis truly occurs, the market will still prioritize certainty over imaginative potential.
4. The essence of Bitcoin: not digital gold, but digital liquidity
Let’s look at it from another angle: what role should Bitcoin actually play? Does it really exist to become 'digital gold'?
Firstly, the underlying attributes of Bitcoin determine that it is inherently different from gold. Gold is physically scarce, does not require a network, and does not rely on a system; it is truly a doomsday asset. In the event of a geopolitical crisis, gold can be physically delivered at any time, making it the ultimate safe haven. Bitcoin, on the other hand, is built on electricity, networks, and computational power, and ownership relies on private keys, while transactions depend on network connections.
Secondly, Bitcoin's market performance is increasingly resembling a highly elastic tech asset. During periods of ample liquidity and rising risk appetite, Bitcoin often leads the gains. However, in the context of rising interest rates and increasing risk aversion, institutions may reduce their positions. The current market tends to believe that Bitcoin has not truly transitioned from a 'risk asset' to a 'safe-haven asset'; it has both a high-growth, high-volatility adventurous side and a safe-haven side against uncertainties. This ambiguity of 'risk-safe haven' may only be validated through more cycles and crises. Until then, the market still tends to view Bitcoin as a high-risk, high-return speculative asset, associating its performance with tech stocks.
Perhaps only when Bitcoin demonstrates a stable value-preserving ability similar to gold can this perception be truly reversed. However, Bitcoin will not lose its long-term value; it still possesses scarcity, global transferability, and decentralized institutional advantages. It is just that in today's market environment, its positioning is more complex, serving as both a pricing anchor and a trading asset, as well as a speculative tool.
Setting the tone: Gold is a safe-haven asset against inflation, while Bitcoin is a growth asset with stronger yield properties. Gold is suitable for preserving value during periods of economic uncertainty, with low volatility (16%) and small maximum drawdown (-18%), making it an 'anchor' for assets. Bitcoin is suitable for allocation when liquidity is ample and risk appetite increases, with an annualized return of up to 60.6%, but it also has high volatility (72%) and a maximum drawdown of -76%. This is not a choice of either/or, but a combination punch for asset allocation.
5. KOL viewpoint summary
During this round of macro re-pricing, gold and Bitcoin are playing different roles. Gold will act more like a 'shield', used to withstand external shocks such as wars, inflation, and sovereign risks; while Bitcoin acts like a 'spear', seizing value-added opportunities from technological changes.
OKX CEO Xu Mingxing @star_okx emphasized that gold is a product of old trust, while Bitcoin is a cornerstone of new credit aimed at the future. Choosing gold in 2026 is like betting on a failing system. Bitget CEO @GracyBitget stated that although market fluctuations are inevitable, the long-term fundamentals of Bitcoin have not changed, and he remains optimistic about its future performance. KOL @KKaWSB cited Polymarket prediction data, predicting that Bitcoin will outperform gold and the S&P 500 in 2026, believing that value realization will arrive.
KOL @BeiDao_98 provided an interesting technical perspective: Bitcoin's RSI relative to gold has once again fallen below 30, a signal in history that has always predicted an impending Bitcoin bull market. Well-known trader Vida @Vida_BWE also approached from short-term capital sentiment, believing that after gold and silver lead the surge, the market is eager to find the next 'dollar alternative asset', so he bought a small amount of BTC, betting on the FOMO sentiment from capital rotation in a few weeks.
KOL @chengzi_95330 proposed a more grand narrative path. He believes that first, traditional hard assets like gold and silver should absorb the credit shocks caused by currency devaluation, and only after they have completed their roles can Bitcoin step in. This 'first traditional, then digital' path may be the story that the current market is unfolding.
Six, three suggestions for retail investors
Faced with the differences in the price increases of Bitcoin and gold and silver, the most common question from ordinary retail investors is: 'Which should I invest in?' There is no standard answer to this question, but we can provide four practical suggestions:
Understanding the positioning of various assets and clarifying allocation purposes. Gold and silver still exhibit strong 'hedging' attributes during periods of macro uncertainty, suitable for defensive allocations; Bitcoin, on the other hand, is currently more suitable for accumulation during times of increased risk appetite and technological growth logic dominance, but be cautious not to gamble for overnight wealth with gold. If you want to hedge against inflation and seek safety → buy gold; if you want long-term high returns → buy Bitcoin (but be prepared to endure a -70% drawdown).
Do not fantasize that Bitcoin will always outperform everything. Bitcoin's growth comes from technological narratives, capital consensus, and institutional breakthroughs, rather than a linear return model. It will not outperform gold, the Nasdaq, or oil every year, but in the long run, its attributes as a decentralized asset still hold value. Do not entirely deny it during short-term pullbacks, nor go all in blindly during surges.
Building an asset portfolio means accepting the reality that different assets play roles in different cycles. If you have a weak perception of global liquidity and limited risk tolerance, consider a combination of gold ETFs and a small amount of BTC to cope with different macro scenarios; if you have a stronger risk appetite, you can also combine ETH, AI tracks, RWA, and other emerging assets to build a more volatile portfolio.
4️⃣ Can gold and silver still be bought now? Be cautious about chasing highs and prioritize buying on dips. In the long term, gold, as an asset favored by global central banks, and silver, which adds industrial properties, still have allocation value during turbulent periods. However, in the short term, their price increases have been significant, and technically there is pressure for a correction; for example, gold's single-day plummet of 3% on January 29 is an example. If you are a long-term investor, consider waiting for a correction before gradually buying in, such as gold below $5,000 and silver below $100, gradually positioning yourself; if you are a short-term speculator, pay attention to the rhythm and do not rush in during the peak of market sentiment. In contrast, although Bitcoin has performed poorly, if liquidity expectations improve subsequently, it may present a window for low-positioning. Focus more on the rhythm and avoid chasing highs and selling lows, which is the most core defensive strategy for ordinary people.
In conclusion: understanding positioning is key to survival!
Gold has risen, and no one will question Bitcoin's value for that; Bitcoin has fallen, but it cannot be said that gold is the only answer. In this era of reshaping value anchors, no asset can meet all demands at once.
In 2024-2025, gold and silver will lead. However, when extending the time frame to 12 years, Bitcoin proves with a 213-fold return: it may not be 'digital gold', but it is the greatest asymmetrical investment opportunity of this era. Last night's sharp drop in gold may mark the end of a short-term adjustment or the beginning of a larger pullback.
But for ordinary traders, what really matters is understanding the role positioning behind different assets and establishing an investment logic that allows survival through cycles.
Good luck to everyone!