BTW it’s around 0.39u now. Yesterday I just touched the historical high of 0.73, and then one day later it got crushed—within 24 hours it dropped 35 points. Today it got dumped to 0.26, then bounced back to 0.39—meaning it’s basically climbed half the way out of the pit.
This kind of bounce looks vicious, but I didn’t take it as a reversal.
On the futures side, open interest shrank by about a quarter in one day. It fell into the short liquidation/strong liquidation zone—in plain terms, this move is a leveraged market built up by leverage, and the longs have already been flushed once. Funding is still positive, but it’s clearly cooling off. Basis has also been hammered to almost nothing. The money is withdrawing rather than entering.
The order book doesn’t cooperate either: sell orders are thicker than buy orders, and you can’t get even half the active buys. For the short term, the sellers still have the upper hand. The big players are a bit interesting: on the account side they’re slightly bearish, but on the position side they’re still pressing long positions—big orders haven’t fully left, but there’s also no sign of adding.
In short, there are two things fighting right now: one is the need for repair after a sharp drop, and the other is evidence that funds haven’t re-entered. Chasing a rebound from this spot isn’t great value. If the repair finishes and nobody steps in, then it’s another round of grinding.
My approach is simple: don’t chase, and don’t rush to bottom-pick. First, see whether someone shows up to take bids during the pullback—or wait for the 4-hour chart to flip back to strength before talking. Small-cap coins naturally swing a lot, and the news backdrop is bearish as well. At a time like this, staying put is stronger than doing things wildly.
#btw $BTW
This kind of bounce looks vicious, but I didn’t take it as a reversal.
On the futures side, open interest shrank by about a quarter in one day. It fell into the short liquidation/strong liquidation zone—in plain terms, this move is a leveraged market built up by leverage, and the longs have already been flushed once. Funding is still positive, but it’s clearly cooling off. Basis has also been hammered to almost nothing. The money is withdrawing rather than entering.
The order book doesn’t cooperate either: sell orders are thicker than buy orders, and you can’t get even half the active buys. For the short term, the sellers still have the upper hand. The big players are a bit interesting: on the account side they’re slightly bearish, but on the position side they’re still pressing long positions—big orders haven’t fully left, but there’s also no sign of adding.
In short, there are two things fighting right now: one is the need for repair after a sharp drop, and the other is evidence that funds haven’t re-entered. Chasing a rebound from this spot isn’t great value. If the repair finishes and nobody steps in, then it’s another round of grinding.
My approach is simple: don’t chase, and don’t rush to bottom-pick. First, see whether someone shows up to take bids during the pullback—or wait for the 4-hour chart to flip back to strength before talking. Small-cap coins naturally swing a lot, and the news backdrop is bearish as well. At a time like this, staying put is stronger than doing things wildly.
#btw $BTW