TermMax’s official claim of 1.5 million registered wallets—I don’t believe a single word. But I do believe the figure of 90,000 daily active users. When you put these two numbers side by side, the doubts actually become clearer.
First, let me lay out the definitions clearly: TVL is over 90 million, registrations are 1.5 million, and daily active users are 90,000—all of these come from TermMax’s official TGE announcement. Third-party dashboards show different numbers: roughly around $30 million to $40 million on DefiLlama, which is a huge gap from the official figures. It’s not surprising to see a discrepancy when you factor in multi-chain deployment and differing definitions for treasury ownership and liquidity. Whether the official counted the curated-treasury allocations, whether cross-chain included any double-counting—I’m not going to dig into that. Either way, when two sets of rulers measure the same thing, the missing segment itself is information. $BTC
What I care about more is another set of signals: the “energy” in daily activity and capital turnover. Registration counts are far too easy to fake. Once an incentive task goes live, you can batch-create “farm” accounts; you just click and move on, leaving essentially no on-chain trace. Lending behavior is different: opening a position requires upfront interest, and settlement at maturity is a hard accounting event. Each transaction is effectively welded onto the chain. So who actually borrowed the money and who really repaid it can’t escape the record. These past few days, I’ve been entering and exiting the seven-day market on TermMax. For every position I opened, I cross-checked the upfront interest and the amounts settled at maturity one by one. The execution price is locked within a range, and the ledger shows everything clearly. This kind of moving data is far harder to fake than registration numbers.
So my conclusion is very straightforward: the accounts that came in and then left—more than 1.4 million of them—will likely scatter in large part once the TGE lands. Farm accounts want quick money; they don’t have the patience to wait until maturity. What can truly stay will depend on what fraction of these 90,000 daily active users is still active every day after the draw on August 25.
Whether the data is real or not will be revealed when the airdrop goes out. #termmax @TermMax
First, let me lay out the definitions clearly: TVL is over 90 million, registrations are 1.5 million, and daily active users are 90,000—all of these come from TermMax’s official TGE announcement. Third-party dashboards show different numbers: roughly around $30 million to $40 million on DefiLlama, which is a huge gap from the official figures. It’s not surprising to see a discrepancy when you factor in multi-chain deployment and differing definitions for treasury ownership and liquidity. Whether the official counted the curated-treasury allocations, whether cross-chain included any double-counting—I’m not going to dig into that. Either way, when two sets of rulers measure the same thing, the missing segment itself is information. $BTC
What I care about more is another set of signals: the “energy” in daily activity and capital turnover. Registration counts are far too easy to fake. Once an incentive task goes live, you can batch-create “farm” accounts; you just click and move on, leaving essentially no on-chain trace. Lending behavior is different: opening a position requires upfront interest, and settlement at maturity is a hard accounting event. Each transaction is effectively welded onto the chain. So who actually borrowed the money and who really repaid it can’t escape the record. These past few days, I’ve been entering and exiting the seven-day market on TermMax. For every position I opened, I cross-checked the upfront interest and the amounts settled at maturity one by one. The execution price is locked within a range, and the ledger shows everything clearly. This kind of moving data is far harder to fake than registration numbers.
So my conclusion is very straightforward: the accounts that came in and then left—more than 1.4 million of them—will likely scatter in large part once the TGE lands. Farm accounts want quick money; they don’t have the patience to wait until maturity. What can truly stay will depend on what fraction of these 90,000 daily active users is still active every day after the draw on August 25.
Whether the data is real or not will be revealed when the airdrop goes out. #termmax @TermMax