CXC Technology’s third day stabilizes: closing at 57.57 yuan flat; 169.66 billion yuan in trading volume still ranks first on the STAR Market; net selling by main funds narrows

On August 20, CXC Technology (SSE 688825) closed at 57.57 yuan, up 0.03%. After two consecutive days of declines, it returned to a flat close for the first time. The intraday range was 56.05–58.43 yuan, with a volatility of 4.14%. Trading volume totaled 169.66 billion yuan, and the turnover rate was 6.58% (Securities Times data page 8/20 15:56, Securities Star 8/20 reporting). Since the close on 8/17 at 61.80 yuan, the cumulative drawdown over the three trading days is about 6.85% (calculation basis). Trading volume has not shrunk: 169.66 billion yuan ranks first on the STAR Market and second across all A-shares (Securities Star 8/20 reporting). This is the third A-share trading day after Binance’s CXMTUSDT perpetual listing. With the spot market shifting from one-way decline to consolidation, the watchpoints for the derivatives side also change accordingly.

1. The three-day price action pattern

Restore the path of the rise and fall first: on 8/17 it closed at 61.80 yuan, up 12%, and the market cap broke through 4 trillion yuan (Shanghai Securities News 8/17 reporting); on 8/18 it closed at 59.19 yuan, down 4.22%, and the market cap was 3.959 trillion yuan (Eastmoney 8/18 reporting); on 8/19 it closed at 57.55 yuan, down 2.77%; after briefly dropping more than 5% intraday, the decline narrowed (Securities Star 8/19 reporting); on 8/20 it opened at 57.58 yuan, with a high of 58.43, a low of 56.05, and closed at 57.57 yuan (Caijingjie/Jinzhengxing 8/20 reporting). The falling speed slowed: -4.22% to -2.77% to +0.03%, with the stepwise three-day decline converging (calculation basis).

Based on a proportional estimate using 57.57 yuan and the market cap of 3.959 trillion yuan from the close on 8/18, the close on 8/20 corresponds to a total market cap of about 3.85 trillion yuan (calculation basis; assuming share capital unchanged). This is a drop of about 3.7% from the 4 trillion yuan peak on 8/17 (calculation basis).

Intraday pattern: on 8/20 it opened almost flat (57.58 yuan). It dipped to 56.05 in the early session and then pulled back. In the afternoon it rose to a high of 58.43, and the close was flat (Financial Jie/Securities Star 8/20 reporting, with additional consolidation). The amplitude was 4.14%, slightly narrower than about 4.57% on 8/19 (8/19 range 55.70–58.34, calculation basis). The volatility center shifted down from the 57 yuan area to the 56–58 yuan range.

2. Volume, price, and funds: disagreement remains, while the magnitude narrows

On 8/20 trading volume was 16.966 billion yuan, turnover 6.58%, and volume/energy remained at a high level (Securities Star/eastmoney 8/20 reporting). Compared with 335 billion yuan on 8/17 and more than 200 billion yuan in the afternoon on 8/18 (Shanghai Securities News/Securities Times 8/17–18 reporting), although turnover declined day by day, the absolute figure is still large. The path on 8/18 was also a volume-expanding selloff: early session turnover exceeded 12 billion yuan, midday was 17.285 billion yuan, and by 14:00 it broke 20 billion yuan (Tencent News/Securities Times 8/18 reporting). From the perspective of main fund flows, on 8/20 net selling was 0.849 billion yuan, about 5% of the day’s turnover, clearly narrowing versus 1.968 billion yuan net selling on 8/19 (Securities Star 8/19–20 reporting plus calculation). The volume-price combination shifted from "volume-expanding decline" to "volume-expanding consolidation"; selling pressure weakened, and bids in the 56–58 yuan range were repeatedly tested (analysis basis).

Trading volume has a historical reference point: on 7/27, the first half-day after listing already reached 122.103 billion yuan, rewriting the A-share single-day turnover record for individual stocks (laohunote 7/27 reporting). Current daily turnover of 16.966 billion yuan still ranks first on the STAR Market and second across the entire A-share market, only behind about 20.3 billion yuan from Jitin? (Securities Star 8/20 reporting). Among the top ten STAR Market stocks by turnover on 8/20, only 3 closed up, with an average increase of 3.07%. Changxin ranked first with a flat close (Securities Star 8/20 reporting).

Some after-hours trading data has also come out: on 8/20 Changxin had 663,300 shares traded after hours for about 38.18 million yuan (Eastmoney 8/20 reporting). After-hours block trading volume was not large, so its reference value for the next day’s opening is limited (analysis basis).

3. Valuation coordinates

After the close on 8/20, Changxin’s trailing dynamic PE was about 38.87x and dynamic PB about 27.63x (Securities Times 8/20 15:56 reporting). Compared with the 40.2x/28.6x during the midday on 8/18, it continued to fall (Securities Times 8/18 reporting for comparison). Under institutional forecast reporting, full-year net profit is expected to exceed 150 billion yuan (NetEase Finance 8/17 paraphrase). Roughly estimating implied valuation using a market cap of 3.85 trillion yuan and net profit of 150 billion yuan yields an implied PE of about 26x (calculation basis, based on institutional forecasts). The horizontal coordinate is the "about 2.5 Moutai" description as of 8/17 (Shanghai Securities News 8/17 reporting). Moutai’s market cap in mid-August is about 1.6 trillion yuan (public quote basis; not independently verified in this round). Whether the high-growth assumption is realized will determine whether this valuation mid-point can hold (analysis basis).

4. The third day of the Binance contract

CXMTUSDT launched at 13:00 on 8/18. The maximum leverage was 20x, and funding rates were settled on an 8-hour basis with upper and lower limits of ±2% (ChainCatcher/Foresight News, AiCoin 8/16 reporting). Today is the third A-share trading day since its launch. The large fluctuations in contract-side margin correspond to the spot selloff in the first two days (8/18 -4.22%, 8/19 -2.77%). After the spot turned into consolidation on 8/20, the observation focus on the contract side shifted from "direction" to "price spread": after the A-share close, contracts continue trading, and the basis between the spot 57.57 yuan and the contract quote, as well as the direction implied by the funding rate, will reflect market expectations before tomorrow’s A-share open (analysis basis). Before A-share holders entering the contract, there were already pre-market pricing records: on July 14 Trade.xyz launched the CXMT pre-market perpetual on Hyperliquid HIP-3; on 7/27, one minute before the spot opened it quoted 48.11 yuan, and at spot open it was 49.50 yuan, a gap of about 3% (BlockBeats August reporting). As of the time of writing, a complete consolidated record of CXMTUSDT’s three-day trades and funding data has not been found through public channels; this article does not fabricate it and is based on real-time data from Binance’s interface (basis clarification).

Mainstream market conditions today are providing a risk-preference backstop on the crypto side: BTC touched 70,000 USD on 8/20, the first time since June 2 (TokenPost 8/20 reporting). Gold spot closed at 4,522.78 USD, up 4.35% on the day (Jiemian Finance 8/20 reporting). Although the chip structure of A-shares is independent of crypto conditions, the liquidity environment on the contract side will move with changes in overall market risk preference (analysis basis).

5. What to watch next

1. Directional choice in the 56.05–58.43 yuan range: after the intraday high-low points narrow, a breakout or breakdown will trigger the next phase of price action (Securities Star 8/20 range reporting plus analysis);

2. Whether main fund flows turn positive: net selling of 0.849 billion yuan on 8/20 narrowed versus the prior day. If net inflows occur for two consecutive days, the selling-pressure phase may be over (Securities Star 8/20 reporting plus analysis);

3. CXMTUSDT basis and funding rate: the contract price after the spot close is a sentiment preview for the next day’s A-share open (analysis basis);

4. Whether turnover can hold above 10 billion: if 16.966 billion yuan continues, it indicates turnover activity is still ongoing; only when turnover shrinks below 10 billion does it mean that disagreement is converging (Securities Star 8/20 reporting plus analysis);

5. Valuation anchor below dynamic PE of 40x: the 38.87x level corresponds to this position—whether institutions are willing to take up shares here (Securities Times 8/20 reporting plus analysis);

6. Early hours of 8/21: the first meeting of the CFTC Innovation Advisory Committee. The agenda focuses on crypto and AI; if it involves regulation of tokenized securities, it may indirectly affect compliance expectations for contracts like CXMTUSDT (ChainCatcher/Gate 8/18 reporting plus analysis).

6. Risks and notes on methodology

1. The 8/20 data is a close snapshot (Securities Times 15:56, Securities Star 8/20). It may change the next day;

2. The three-day cumulative -6.85%, estimated market cap of about 3.85 trillion yuan, and implied PE of about 26x are all calculation-based figures;

3. Main-force net selling is based on Securities Star’s fund flow data; it may differ from figures reported by exchanges;

4. Three-day trading and funding data for CXMTUSDT were not found in public channels; it has been marked as unverified.

5. This article does not constitute investment advice.

Summary

Changxin moved from a one-sided decline into a sideways range: over three days the pullback was 6.85%. On 8/20 it closed flat at 57.57 yuan, with trading volume of 16.966 billion yuan still in place. The main force’s net selling narrowed from 1.968 billion yuan to 0.849 billion yuan. The disagreement on the spot side hasn’t disappeared; it has simply shifted from "direction" to "a range." On the contract side, look at the basis and funding rate; on the spot side, which one will break first: 56.05 or 58.43? Will you pick up shares at this level, or wait for the direction?

$CXMT

#CXMT #长鑫科技 #科创板 #A股 #perpetual contracts

The above content does not constitute investment advice