HYPE is now around 72u. I’ve been grinding along for half a month on the direction, and these past two days I finally managed to break out—over the last 24 hours it’s pulled up more than 23%. It basically went straight from 58 to 72, and now it’s sticking right to the recent high at 72.7.
But at this level, I’m actually not in a hurry to chase.
There’s nothing to bad-mouth on the long side: price has moved above the dual moving averages, there are five consecutive bullish candles on the 4-hour chart, and contract open interest has blown up by more than 30% in a single day. The quadrant indicator is bull_strong. The whale accounts’ long positions also make up about 65% and are still adding on top—trend-driven capital really is entering.
The issue is elsewhere. Price is hugging the highs, but the aggressive buying is retreating: the share of contract aggressive buy orders has fallen to 43%, which is not as high as the sell side, and over the last 7 hours it shrank by nearly 30%. The amount that’s raising the price is getting less and less. Even bids that buy deep only come in at about 70% of the depth of the sells, and there’s supply capping it above.
Add to that a 30% daily increase in positions—long positions are getting a bit crowded. Funding rates aren’t high, not overheated, which is a good sign. But pushing higher from here will still require fresh capital to take the baton.
So my view: the direction has come out, but at this spot chasing longs has mediocre cost-effectiveness. Wait for a pullback—if it retraces back near the moving averages and there are still people willing to pick it up then, you can enter at a much more comfortable risk-reward. If you just run into it while it’s still hugging the high, the volatility will only get worse.
#hype $HYPE
But at this level, I’m actually not in a hurry to chase.
There’s nothing to bad-mouth on the long side: price has moved above the dual moving averages, there are five consecutive bullish candles on the 4-hour chart, and contract open interest has blown up by more than 30% in a single day. The quadrant indicator is bull_strong. The whale accounts’ long positions also make up about 65% and are still adding on top—trend-driven capital really is entering.
The issue is elsewhere. Price is hugging the highs, but the aggressive buying is retreating: the share of contract aggressive buy orders has fallen to 43%, which is not as high as the sell side, and over the last 7 hours it shrank by nearly 30%. The amount that’s raising the price is getting less and less. Even bids that buy deep only come in at about 70% of the depth of the sells, and there’s supply capping it above.
Add to that a 30% daily increase in positions—long positions are getting a bit crowded. Funding rates aren’t high, not overheated, which is a good sign. But pushing higher from here will still require fresh capital to take the baton.
So my view: the direction has come out, but at this spot chasing longs has mediocre cost-effectiveness. Wait for a pullback—if it retraces back near the moving averages and there are still people willing to pick it up then, you can enter at a much more comfortable risk-reward. If you just run into it while it’s still hugging the high, the volatility will only get worse.
#hype $HYPE